{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "09156b5a-2b6e-422b-929e-698a345618f2",
    "symbol": "603993",
    "name": "CMOC Group Limited",
    "exchange": "SHH",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "000001.SS",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 77.056,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": 3.176,
    "architecture_energy": 11.033,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.263,
    "architecture_confidence": 51.237,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.6,
        "rotation_up": 37.44,
        "upward_expansion": 34.22,
        "deceleration": 38.54,
        "rotation_down": 24.96,
        "downward_expansion": 47.22
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        19.444667,
        18.932,
        18.792964,
        19.011475
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 20.83,
    "trend_reference": 19.724048,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.056071,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 10.440801,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.995058,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 18.438149,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.131676,
    "excess_performance": -0.088472,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056071,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02421,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.995058,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.144041,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.184381,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051767,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.131676,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.465465,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1333959096,
      "relative_activity": 1.23447,
      "balance": 1.465465,
      "dry_up": 1.20499,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.099023,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.499475,
      "from_high_reference": -0.265937,
      "from_low_reference": 1.357849
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 19.724048,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.440801,
      "structural_low": 16.091088,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": -0.005051,
        "positive_rate": 0.473684,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.473684,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031008,
        "regime_survival": 0.526316,
        "best_return": 0.362676,
        "worst_return": -0.12165,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01523,
        "regime_survival": 0.222222,
        "best_return": 0.52993,
        "worst_return": -0.25,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.011089,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.181366,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.281467,
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      }
    ],
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 19.52,
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        "typical_volume": 1094335205.6,
        "trend": 19.687031,
        "fair_value": 10.342226,
        "relative_strength": 15.504086,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "direction": -25.178134,
        "energy": 12.689389,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 20.83,
        "volume": 1333959096,
        "typical_volume": 1080592703.25,
        "trend": 19.724048,
        "fair_value": 10.440801,
        "relative_strength": 18.438149,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 3.176185,
        "energy": 11.03308,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}