{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09175219-e6e1-43ba-a825-aee04a79e44d", "symbol": "XG11", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 11 Sustainable Cities UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.47, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.914, "architecture_energy": 44.179, "architecture_maturity": 60.466, "architecture_confidence": 78.608, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.62, "rotation_up": 34.82, "upward_expansion": 65.67, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.98, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.417333, 35.536909, 35.088833, 34.565452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.459999, "trend_reference": 33.987333, "distance_from_trend": 0.04333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.256795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171968, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.830281, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074383, "excess_performance": -0.096509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040279, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 52.869565, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 52.869565, "dry_up": 4.462694, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01205, "annualized_volatility": 0.173739, "from_high_reference": -0.013493, "from_low_reference": 0.184171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.987333, "fair_value_reference": 30.256795, "structural_low": 31.305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021839, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.006991, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.047726, "worst_return": -0.02904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.108558, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124466, "worst_return": -0.005692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057497, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114062, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171264, "worst_return": -0.056269, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.013336, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.273369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013336, "worst_return": 0.013336, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027791, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02406, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0104, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", 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33.970387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.945, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.3, "trend": 33.495833, "fair_value": 30.044936, "relative_strength": -4.226224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.170489, "energy": 90.347845, "activity_lines": [ 35.868333, 35.559273, 34.601857, 34.140215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.235001, "volume": 69, "typical_volume": 60.4, "trend": 33.633167, "fair_value": 30.097179, "relative_strength": -4.619101, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.410023, "energy": 66.401299, "activity_lines": [ 35.708334, 35.574, 34.720262, 34.25242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.235001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 60.4, "trend": 33.7705, "fair_value": 30.149423, "relative_strength": -4.318958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.469235, "energy": 58.689438, "activity_lines": [ 35.519001, 35.556728, 34.833929, 34.355764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.459999, "volume": 3436, "typical_volume": 232.2, "trend": 33.899334, "fair_value": 30.203109, "relative_strength": -4.227154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.042462, "energy": 51.204242, "activity_lines": [ 35.452, 35.559364, 34.964286, 34.464764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 196.35, "trend": 33.987333, "fair_value": 30.256795, "relative_strength": -6.830281, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.914417, "energy": 44.178959, "activity_lines": [ 35.417333, 35.536909, 35.088833, 34.565452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }