{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09205536-06f4-4e01-beed-ee77dbdfdcf4", "symbol": "SMTC", "name": "Semtech Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.498, "architecture_energy": 15.993, "architecture_maturity": 71.729, "architecture_confidence": 90.205, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.58, "rotation_up": 22.5, "upward_expansion": 47.31, "deceleration": 84.76, "rotation_down": 32.2, "downward_expansion": 25.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.812667, 134.325818, 135.477143, 125.615043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 139.42, "trend_reference": 112.274833, "distance_from_trend": 0.241774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.034776, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.533307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.004752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.611792, "excess_performance": 0.424338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.241774, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250762, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.533307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.340048, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.611792, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584348, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11192673, "relative_activity": 0.725716, "balance": 0.584348, "dry_up": 0.726334, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194804, "annualized_volatility": 0.651584, "from_high_reference": -0.213871, "from_low_reference": 2.029552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.274833, "fair_value_reference": 55.034776, "structural_low": 69.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030497, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.01929, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.15961, "worst_return": -0.436893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.189737, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.526211, "worst_return": -0.366717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.160392, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.084791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.108494, "worst_return": -0.340237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.203063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.453882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.381399, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250669, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", 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133.798667, 121.937785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.92, "volume": 8466742, "typical_volume": 15716638.8, "trend": 108.801833, "fair_value": 53.724455, "relative_strength": 31.123426, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.507234, "energy": 23.066238, "activity_lines": [ 130.541333, 139.839636, 134.378429, 123.149387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.82, "volume": 12014315, "typical_volume": 15987590.5, "trend": 110.2205, "fair_value": 54.303558, "relative_strength": 20.688735, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.752066, "energy": 18.231865, "activity_lines": [ 125.012667, 134.764909, 133.977714, 123.731204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 139.42, "volume": 11192673, "typical_volume": 15422943.35, "trend": 112.274833, "fair_value": 55.034776, "relative_strength": 34.004752, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.497658, "energy": 15.993364, "activity_lines": [ 128.812667, 134.325818, 135.477143, 125.615043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }