{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0920977b-3436-4b92-9c76-d8206468e24e", "symbol": "SANION", "name": "Saniona AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.437, "architecture_energy": 28.182, "architecture_maturity": 94.595, "architecture_confidence": 78.976, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.61, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 20.19, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 34.73, "downward_expansion": 61.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.462, 13.283273, 13.492619, 14.370215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.5, "trend_reference": 16.396, "distance_from_trend": -0.176628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.813005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.531827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.132429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.505939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106696, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.531827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.002098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1369166, "relative_activity": 0.78011, "balance": 1.002098, "dry_up": 0.794883, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084672, "annualized_volatility": 0.677215, "from_high_reference": -0.522968, "from_low_reference": 0.681196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.396, "fair_value_reference": 8.813005, "structural_low": 12.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.03193, "positive_rate": 0.310345, "directional_follow_through": 0.689655, "median_excess_return": -0.067684, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.99361, "worst_return": -0.669098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.248509, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.236104, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.7319, "worst_return": -0.78801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.371405, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.324087, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.483784, "worst_return": -0.589017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.327044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.445376, "energy": 56.611273, "activity_lines": [ 13.034, 13.228727, 13.784857, 15.307355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.04, "volume": 1378560, "typical_volume": 2586739.05, "trend": 17.143, "fair_value": 8.701802, "relative_strength": -23.291359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.916831, "energy": 53.30858, "activity_lines": [ 13.054, 13.167636, 13.651286, 15.024452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.81, "volume": 1204122, "typical_volume": 2095098.75, "trend": 16.883333, "fair_value": 8.734614, "relative_strength": -26.032013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.780991, "energy": 51.866058, "activity_lines": [ 12.988667, 13.078182, 13.522381, 14.744903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.23, "volume": 1628530, "typical_volume": 1871324.9, "trend": 16.654333, "fair_value": 8.775824, "relative_strength": -19.251945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.704137, "energy": 34.130586, "activity_lines": [ 13.388, 13.256727, 13.537143, 14.57372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.5, "volume": 1369166, "typical_volume": 1755094.05, "trend": 16.396, "fair_value": 8.813005, "relative_strength": -25.132429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.436776, "energy": 28.181895, "activity_lines": [ 13.462, 13.283273, 13.492619, 14.370215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }