{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09299daa-af53-4caf-b59d-e21ec25fd3f9", "symbol": "300201", "name": "Xuzhou Handler Special Vehicle Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.698, "architecture_energy": 23.052, "architecture_maturity": 79.629, "architecture_confidence": 70.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.47, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 46.06, "deceleration": 82.33, "rotation_down": 45.76, "downward_expansion": 35.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.430667, 15.544354, 15.753614, 14.655583 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.93, "trend_reference": 12.92119, "distance_from_trend": 0.232859, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.314192, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.522888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 60.761324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.845886, "excess_performance": 0.838487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.232859, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.373787, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.522888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.607613, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082909, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.845886, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.333725, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184122788, "relative_activity": 0.932758, "balance": 2.333725, "dry_up": 1.322551, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156302, "annualized_volatility": 0.704278, "from_high_reference": -0.232887, "from_low_reference": 2.166998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.92119, "fair_value_reference": 6.314192, "structural_low": 7.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.064695, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.040452, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.207921, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.146479, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.2179, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.015385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051588, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.142783, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.215686, "worst_return": -0.184615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.643507, "energy": 20.386277, "activity_lines": [ 15.98263, 17.031854, 15.780076, 14.261942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.84, "volume": 396172015, "typical_volume": 207752358.55, "trend": 12.388857, "fair_value": 6.173343, "relative_strength": 49.731306, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.318902, "energy": 26.365472, "activity_lines": [ 14.944, 16.391585, 15.733144, 14.373435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.45, "volume": 183356586, "typical_volume": 204415670.9, "trend": 12.617857, "fair_value": 6.235503, "relative_strength": 45.565631, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.709699, "energy": 26.461648, "activity_lines": [ 14.103333, 15.698332, 15.631451, 14.441896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.93, "volume": 184122788, "typical_volume": 197396109.3, "trend": 12.92119, "fair_value": 6.314192, "relative_strength": 60.761324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.69818, "energy": 23.052215, "activity_lines": [ 14.430667, 15.544354, 15.753614, 14.655583 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }