{ "ticker": { "uuid": "092c3584-cd4b-4b3f-8dcf-814976fa2bbd", "symbol": "6027", "name": "Reliance Securities Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.972, "architecture_energy": 15.441, "architecture_maturity": 26.556, "architecture_confidence": 45.487, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.06, "rotation_up": 35.52, "upward_expansion": 56.8, "deceleration": 61.25, "rotation_down": 19.64, "downward_expansion": 13.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.85, 11.752727, 11.973095, 11.732946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.15, "trend_reference": 11.249667, "distance_from_trend": 0.080032, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.281311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.371742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.292553, "excess_performance": -0.148819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080032, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103219, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129575, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.935565, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73071, "relative_activity": 0.15805, "balance": 0.935565, "dry_up": 0.431543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111744, "annualized_volatility": 0.465226, "from_high_reference": -0.162069, "from_low_reference": 0.697671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.249667, "fair_value_reference": 9.281311, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.052675, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.001499, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.226667, "worst_return": -0.107609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110556, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.041927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211402, "worst_return": -0.025974, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.196319, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.190052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.502138, "worst_return": -0.095238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.9, "volume": 279359, "typical_volume": 462007.1, "trend": 10.938, "fair_value": 9.181575, "relative_strength": -10.274329, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.721658, "energy": 9.900535, "activity_lines": [ 11.626667, 11.792727, 11.96581, 11.577075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.7, "volume": 307682, "typical_volume": 469129.85, "trend": 11.044667, "fair_value": 9.212126, "relative_strength": -10.269661, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.913359, "energy": 8.557462, "activity_lines": [ 11.663333, 11.743636, 11.963333, 11.626237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.7, "volume": 137944, "typical_volume": 470417.9, "trend": 11.151333, "fair_value": 9.24479, "relative_strength": -12.036434, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.947959, "energy": 7.429138, "activity_lines": [ 11.683333, 11.700909, 11.952143, 11.668516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.15, "volume": 73071, "typical_volume": 462327.25, "trend": 11.249667, "fair_value": 9.281311, "relative_strength": -11.371742, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.971699, "energy": 15.441021, "activity_lines": [ 11.85, 11.752727, 11.973095, 11.732946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }