{ "ticker": { "uuid": "092cfe2d-9146-46c4-8b42-f095a50ab572", "symbol": "ATX", "name": "Amplia Therapeutics Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.668, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.419, "architecture_energy": 7.596, "architecture_maturity": 42.129, "architecture_confidence": 61.428, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.6, "rotation_up": 31.7, "upward_expansion": 22.81, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 23.39, "downward_expansion": 52.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.140333, 0.137818, 0.1385, 0.141032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.15, "trend_reference": 0.141417, "distance_from_trend": 0.060695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.112354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335066, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.810106, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.25, "excess_performance": 0.186294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060695, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149939, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.54336, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21791819, "relative_activity": 1.431673, "balance": 1.54336, "dry_up": 0.471537, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144872, "annualized_volatility": 1.398869, "from_high_reference": -0.454545, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.141417, "fair_value_reference": 0.112354, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.078234, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.088767, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.273704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.006011, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.208696, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.245031, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.058824, "worst_return": -0.26499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.304348, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.342423, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.49468, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.284615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.344828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.305085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.35, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -10.232415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.721631, "energy": 21.545894, "activity_lines": [ 0.139333, 0.133364, 0.140464, 0.141608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.14, "volume": 2447824, "typical_volume": 14196156.25, "trend": 0.143583, "fair_value": 0.111675, "relative_strength": -5.338045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.066799, "energy": 20.256002, "activity_lines": [ 0.140667, 0.134727, 0.139929, 0.141409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 2091394, "typical_volume": 14155720.65, "trend": 0.14225, "fair_value": 0.111989, "relative_strength": -12.902832, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.714178, "energy": 16.496453, "activity_lines": [ 0.137, 0.134455, 0.138298, 0.140532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.15, "volume": 21791819, "typical_volume": 15221224.3, "trend": 0.141417, "fair_value": 0.112354, "relative_strength": -1.810106, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.419261, "energy": 7.59595, "activity_lines": [ 0.140333, 0.137818, 0.1385, 0.141032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }