{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09326f48-ab31-4317-a9d0-1295c4760e67", "symbol": "300343", "name": "Lecron Industrial Development Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.92, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.1, "architecture_energy": 30.42, "architecture_maturity": 9.636, "architecture_confidence": 84.375, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.66, "rotation_up": 20.85, "upward_expansion": 5.35, "deceleration": 49.03, "rotation_down": 48.13, "downward_expansion": 74.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.862667, 5.900545, 6.169619, 6.266645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.11, "trend_reference": 6.32, "distance_from_trend": -0.033228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.78609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055981, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.476278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003284, "excess_performance": -0.004116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00776, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055981, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.893167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 182018705, "relative_activity": 1.932345, "balance": 0.893167, "dry_up": 1.537659, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119476, "annualized_volatility": 0.522643, "from_high_reference": -0.178763, "from_low_reference": 0.302772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.32, "fair_value_reference": 5.78609, "structural_low": 5.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.024641, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.007966, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.289474, "worst_return": -0.212081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005976, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.024357, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.321053, "worst_return": -0.347085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004159, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021943, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.340681, "worst_return": -0.386689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 5.962, 6.205455, 6.393429, 6.398129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.61, "volume": 134690659, "typical_volume": 87158768.8, "trend": 6.323667, "fair_value": 5.831859, "relative_strength": -4.964206, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.089004, "energy": 47.271807, "activity_lines": [ 5.828, 6.057273, 6.310333, 6.35129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.7, "volume": 156607110, "typical_volume": 89112780.05, "trend": 6.321, "fair_value": 5.822564, "relative_strength": -3.732154, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.724497, "energy": 36.173524, "activity_lines": [ 5.780667, 5.946, 6.241667, 6.311054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.84, "volume": 106047309, "typical_volume": 89530002.6, "trend": 6.317333, "fair_value": 5.802436, "relative_strength": 0.149189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.843485, "energy": 43.021834, "activity_lines": [ 5.795333, 5.889091, 6.190619, 6.280022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.11, "volume": 182018705, "typical_volume": 94195747.05, "trend": 6.32, "fair_value": 5.78609, "relative_strength": -0.476278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.100054, "energy": 30.419647, "activity_lines": [ 5.862667, 5.900545, 6.169619, 6.266645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }