{ "ticker": { "uuid": "093449fa-f929-41cb-8741-754792981d32", "symbol": "BIX", "name": "Ellipsiz Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.195, "architecture_energy": 52.21, "architecture_maturity": 22.016, "architecture_confidence": 70.424, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.18, "rotation_up": 62.45, "upward_expansion": 85.32, "deceleration": 44.88, "rotation_down": 15.32, "downward_expansion": 9.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.268, 0.263636, 0.261071, 0.25729 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.2545, "distance_from_trend": 0.100196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.194166, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.442065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.065235, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037037, "excess_performance": -0.117798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020016, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.442065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417357, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41500, "relative_activity": 0.18622, "balance": 0.417357, "dry_up": 0.666913, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063187, "annualized_volatility": 0.307092, "from_high_reference": -0.066667, "from_low_reference": 0.272727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2545, "fair_value_reference": 0.194166, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.010204, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.011576, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.540073, "worst_return": -0.305084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.083918, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.099493, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.735296, "worst_return": -0.219553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018216, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.067693, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.575451, "worst_return": -0.222224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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0.253476, 0.251828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.26, "volume": 80100, "typical_volume": 212465.0, "trend": 0.249333, "fair_value": 0.190973, "relative_strength": -8.942803, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.610169, "energy": 16.677923, "activity_lines": [ 0.255333, 0.258, 0.254452, 0.252548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.265, "volume": 173400, "typical_volume": 219515.0, "trend": 0.250333, "fair_value": 0.191596, "relative_strength": -10.751276, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.340401, "energy": 18.028395, "activity_lines": [ 0.258333, 0.258818, 0.255857, 0.253559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.26, "volume": 274000, "typical_volume": 228100.0, "trend": 0.251167, "fair_value": 0.192118, "relative_strength": -12.787861, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.298144, "energy": 20.076463, "activity_lines": [ 0.259667, 0.258545, 0.256714, 0.254183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.265, "volume": 100100, "typical_volume": 225945.0, "trend": 0.252333, "fair_value": 0.192741, "relative_strength": -12.007593, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.388022, "energy": 28.861027, "activity_lines": [ 0.262, 0.259545, 0.257976, 0.255075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26, "volume": 178900, "typical_volume": 234140.0, "trend": 0.253333, "fair_value": 0.193355, "relative_strength": -13.847173, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.866574, "energy": 29.615744, "activity_lines": [ 0.262, 0.259818, 0.258643, 0.25557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 41500, "typical_volume": 222855.0, "trend": 0.2545, "fair_value": 0.194166, "relative_strength": -8.065235, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.194536, "energy": 52.210112, "activity_lines": [ 0.268, 0.263636, 0.261071, 0.25729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }