{ "ticker": { "uuid": "093b699e-cd73-4192-bb7b-c624f7fe8158", "symbol": "XUST", "name": "Xtrackers II US Treasuries UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.846, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.882, "architecture_energy": 53.986, "architecture_maturity": 2.381, "architecture_confidence": 82.908, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.95, "rotation_up": 10.2, "upward_expansion": 11.17, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 61.99, "downward_expansion": 82.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.227367, 8.247873, 8.254657, 8.2635 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.236, "trend_reference": 8.27545, "distance_from_trend": -0.004767, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.917558, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.117765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006034, "excess_performance": -0.05727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004767, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000171, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.510205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54909, "relative_activity": 0.32906, "balance": 1.510205, "dry_up": 0.478631, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006192, "annualized_volatility": 0.040736, "from_high_reference": -0.022375, "from_low_reference": 0.021583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.27545, "fair_value_reference": 7.917558, "structural_low": 8.161, "invalidation": 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"fair_value": 7.903458, "relative_strength": -5.940664, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.40574, "energy": 13.321697, "activity_lines": [ 8.2787, 8.272464, 8.268462, 8.275666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.2205, "volume": 25942, "typical_volume": 171018.6, "trend": 8.279033, "fair_value": 7.907936, "relative_strength": -7.472017, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.440106, "energy": 26.725364, "activity_lines": [ 8.257833, 8.265364, 8.263817, 8.271809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.191, "volume": 43490, "typical_volume": 165810.8, "trend": 8.27675, "fair_value": 7.912535, "relative_strength": -8.627432, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.001007, "energy": 56.103916, "activity_lines": [ 8.2305, 8.252409, 8.256914, 8.266129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.236, "volume": 54909, "typical_volume": 166866.0, "trend": 8.27545, "fair_value": 7.917558, "relative_strength": -8.117765, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.881723, "energy": 53.985542, "activity_lines": [ 8.227367, 8.247873, 8.254657, 8.2635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }