{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0940d46b-647c-4d3c-abc0-e67c96490d0c", "symbol": "VPRPL", "name": "Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.914, "architecture_energy": 46.194, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.614, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.8, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 18.71, "deceleration": 62.58, "rotation_down": 46.61, "downward_expansion": 68.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.276, 28.181454, 31.652143, 34.050172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.93, "trend_reference": 37.440667, "distance_from_trend": -0.173893, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 156.708627, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.802627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.545153, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.341214, "excess_performance": -0.297505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276737, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.802627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.485452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023472, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1262812, "relative_activity": 0.390454, "balance": 0.448709, "dry_up": 0.253378, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126066, "annualized_volatility": 0.757363, "from_high_reference": -0.810675, "from_low_reference": 0.29198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.440667, "fair_value_reference": 156.708627, "structural_low": 23.940001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.042364, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054277, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.123129, "worst_return": -0.31516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.305855, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.326234, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.061126, "worst_return": -0.476929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.459676, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.481247, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.237937, "worst_return": -0.681415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 26.99, 27.887454, 32.0, 34.511613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.93, "volume": 1262812, "typical_volume": 3234218.55, "trend": 37.440667, "fair_value": 156.708627, "relative_strength": -48.545153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.913783, "energy": 46.194145, "activity_lines": [ 28.276, 28.181454, 31.652143, 34.050172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }