{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0942b8b2-2d0e-4b10-9d02-b2fbd18a9650", "symbol": "PLRX", "name": "Pliant Therapeutics\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.508, "architecture_energy": 67.405, "architecture_maturity": 34.329, "architecture_confidence": 90.447, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.04, "rotation_up": 13.66, "upward_expansion": 14.77, "deceleration": 38.22, "rotation_down": 66.36, "downward_expansion": 88.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.073333, 1.102727, 1.144333, 1.174774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 1.205667, "distance_from_trend": -0.129113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.7725, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.864908, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.598054, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078947, "excess_performance": -0.266401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.864908, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004426, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037275, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.875407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1523628, "relative_activity": 0.621324, "balance": 0.875407, "dry_up": 1.190986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079487, "annualized_volatility": 0.41022, "from_high_reference": -0.461538, "from_low_reference": 0.019417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.205667, "fair_value_reference": 7.7725, "structural_low": 1.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.037164, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.039908, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 1.261614, "worst_return": -0.792041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014196, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.038615, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 2.20317, "worst_return": -0.818999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045881, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171534, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.626801, "worst_return": -0.786906, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015568, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.797176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066265, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158621, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.17, "volume": 1555118, "typical_volume": 2457192.9, "trend": 1.232, "fair_value": 8.321731, "relative_strength": -26.589336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.520625, "energy": 46.583735, "activity_lines": [ 1.153333, 1.168727, 1.204476, 1.218151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.12, "volume": 3477375, "typical_volume": 2397167.8, "trend": 1.228333, "fair_value": 8.211603, "relative_strength": -30.37244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.806257, "energy": 45.890013, "activity_lines": [ 1.143333, 1.158, 1.193667, 1.210925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.15, "volume": 5143927, "typical_volume": 2521646.45, "trend": 1.225667, "fair_value": 8.106667, "relative_strength": -24.815271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.420469, "energy": 38.156321, "activity_lines": [ 1.145333, 1.154182, 1.186286, 1.205871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.09, "volume": 3709538, "typical_volume": 2620570.3, "trend": 1.221667, "fair_value": 8.003846, "relative_strength": -26.821098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.259825, "energy": 48.162494, "activity_lines": [ 1.126, 1.140727, 1.173905, 1.197118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.04, "volume": 1305180, "typical_volume": 2526260.3, "trend": 1.214667, "fair_value": 7.881346, "relative_strength": -29.720461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.528548, "energy": 63.98887, "activity_lines": [ 1.094667, 1.119273, 1.157905, 1.185398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 1523628, "typical_volume": 2452226.55, "trend": 1.205667, "fair_value": 7.7725, "relative_strength": -31.598054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.50787, "energy": 67.405173, "activity_lines": [ 1.073333, 1.102727, 1.144333, 1.174774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }