{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0947965c-0145-4ea1-9944-e75dbb0531f6", "symbol": "UD06", "name": "UBS BBG Commodity CMCI SF UCITS ETF hGBP acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.125, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.384, "architecture_energy": 36.349, "architecture_maturity": 38.149, "architecture_confidence": 53.089, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.29, "rotation_up": 67.28, "upward_expansion": 70.08, "deceleration": 61.71, "rotation_down": 9.66, "downward_expansion": 11.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 1894.553333, 1868.089091, 1879.710947, 1871.460638 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1904.6, "trend_reference": 1843.643326, "distance_from_trend": 0.033063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1491.223779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.517895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112825, "excess_performance": 0.06159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277206, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025179, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112825, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15, "relative_activity": 0.030886, "balance": 0.620865, "dry_up": 1.014105, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027613, "annualized_volatility": 0.125361, "from_high_reference": -0.065227, "from_low_reference": 0.324663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1843.643326, "fair_value_reference": 1491.223779, "structural_low": 1681.0, "invalidation": "A 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1878.876355, 1881.848083, 1849.081925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1794.1, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 747.55, "trend": 1797.553323, "fair_value": 1474.341727, "relative_strength": -0.703137, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.884163, "energy": 34.096211, "activity_lines": [ 1813.74, 1859.038175, 1875.408561, 1849.248807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1835.3, "volume": 86, "typical_volume": 746.8, "trend": 1805.906658, "fair_value": 1477.51865, "relative_strength": 3.236636, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.889729, "energy": 29.886024, "activity_lines": [ 1814.52, 1848.809086, 1872.457133, 1851.684076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1878.7, "volume": 1445, "typical_volume": 679.3, "trend": 1815.779991, "fair_value": 1480.858394, "relative_strength": 4.524862, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.582874, "energy": 20.679306, "activity_lines": [ 1834.066667, 1848.438178, 1873.149039, 1856.380421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1919.4, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 664.2, "trend": 1825.506658, "fair_value": 1484.341087, "relative_strength": 5.244416, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.846067, "energy": 20.168634, "activity_lines": [ 1866.006667, 1856.769089, 1877.163803, 1863.065583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1886.1, "volume": 494, "typical_volume": 570.2, "trend": 1835.069993, "fair_value": 1487.706471, "relative_strength": 2.002425, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.721424, "energy": 27.431984, "activity_lines": [ 1880.593333, 1860.114545, 1877.57047, 1866.974831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1904.6, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 485.65, "trend": 1843.643326, "fair_value": 1491.223779, "relative_strength": 2.517895, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.384232, "energy": 36.348539, "activity_lines": [ 1894.553333, 1868.089091, 1879.710947, 1871.460638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }