{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09498ab0-cdc7-4f83-8c10-3e72204953fb", "symbol": "DAX", "name": "Amundi DAX II UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.098, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.571, "architecture_energy": 70.276, "architecture_maturity": 15.559, "architecture_confidence": 79.925, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.19, "rotation_up": 66.74, "upward_expansion": 87.73, "deceleration": 46.43, "rotation_down": 15.67, "downward_expansion": 14.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 232.973336, 230.819093, 227.754288, 225.337314 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 239.5, "trend_reference": 223.938335, "distance_from_trend": 0.069491, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 191.906795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.722518, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060908, "excess_performance": 0.007597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069491, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013166, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248002, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053253, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007225, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11980, "relative_activity": 0.511115, "balance": 1.0442, "dry_up": 0.539135, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025422, "annualized_volatility": 0.183511, "from_high_reference": -0.004158, "from_low_reference": 0.199299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 223.938335, "fair_value_reference": 191.906795, "structural_low": 199.699997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.000762, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003717, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.085063, "worst_return": -0.113629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018619, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001348, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124441, "worst_return": -0.069386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052619, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.025687, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.170747, "worst_return": -0.011051, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 223.356668, "fair_value": 190.759103, "relative_strength": -0.201715, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.178795, "energy": 46.85676, "activity_lines": [ 228.193335, 227.664547, 225.026668, 223.685915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 233.100006, "volume": 8801, "typical_volume": 24910.9, "trend": 223.646668, "fair_value": 191.308718, "relative_strength": 0.3214, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.348682, "energy": 43.803093, "activity_lines": [ 229.80667, 228.719093, 226.131193, 224.314518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 239.5, "volume": 11980, "typical_volume": 23438.95, "trend": 223.938335, "fair_value": 191.906795, "relative_strength": 0.722518, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.57117, "energy": 70.276163, "activity_lines": [ 232.973336, 230.819093, 227.754288, 225.337314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }