{ "ticker": { "uuid": "094b9b1f-c40b-4bfb-88e7-17195e7a3af2", "symbol": "SNAP", "name": "Snap Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.44, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.805, "architecture_energy": 25.01, "architecture_maturity": 27.706, "architecture_confidence": 65.235, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.57, "rotation_up": 22.55, "upward_expansion": 16.02, "deceleration": 60.97, "rotation_down": 42.64, "downward_expansion": 63.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.184, 4.165273, 4.380633, 4.409772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.615, "trend_reference": 4.579867, "distance_from_trend": 0.007671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.802295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.475705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.835483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047673, "excess_performance": -0.126574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007671, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.475705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540976, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27637, "relative_activity": 5.907614, "balance": 0.540976, "dry_up": 1.907518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090591, "annualized_volatility": 0.639619, "from_high_reference": -0.409545, "from_low_reference": 0.376379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.579867, "fair_value_reference": 8.802295, "structural_low": 3.353, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.013703, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.001155, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.29699, "worst_return": -0.507595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010252, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.126087, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.875152, "worst_return": -0.538069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.102249, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.283436, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.295758, "worst_return": -0.718379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.291752, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.58186, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.551609, "worst_return": -0.799889, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166539, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043913, "active": false 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"2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085131, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215886, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080796, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.375, "volume": 930, "typical_volume": 782.05, "trend": 9.6819, "fair_value": 29.332904, "relative_strength": -13.824268, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -42.271634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.87871, "energy": 63.057882, "activity_lines": [ 4.154, 4.394182, 4.500714, 4.589563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.925, "volume": 5568, "typical_volume": 3413.6, "trend": 4.8525, "fair_value": 8.904474, "relative_strength": -43.448361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.944943, "energy": 73.047893, "activity_lines": [ 4.065333, 4.277545, 4.450519, 4.524316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.9, "volume": 2490, "typical_volume": 3378.6, "trend": 4.761833, "fair_value": 8.869026, "relative_strength": -43.408072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.51986, "energy": 64.165046, "activity_lines": [ 4.007667, 4.175091, 4.399862, 4.462865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.99, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3302.35, "trend": 4.6661, "fair_value": 8.831558, "relative_strength": -40.90211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.104519, "energy": 55.148455, "activity_lines": [ 3.996333, 4.105, 4.360395, 4.413069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.615, "volume": 27637, "typical_volume": 4678.2, "trend": 4.579867, "fair_value": 8.802295, "relative_strength": -32.835483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.805242, "energy": 25.00986, "activity_lines": [ 4.184, 4.165273, 4.380633, 4.409772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }