{ "ticker": { "uuid": "094db2e5-7507-4cb9-9766-2d6ca0dbf240", "symbol": "NRJC", "name": "Amundi MSCI New Energy UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.189, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.28, "architecture_energy": 22.904, "architecture_maturity": 55.654, "architecture_confidence": 94.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.07, "rotation_up": 17.37, "upward_expansion": 44.87, "deceleration": 84.32, "rotation_down": 46.14, "downward_expansion": 36.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.922667, 21.439273, 21.749205, 21.332736 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.215, "trend_reference": 20.6017, "distance_from_trend": 0.029769, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.769269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.73622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156761, "excess_performance": -0.014131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029769, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156761, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.054561, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32279, "relative_activity": 0.880945, "balance": 1.054561, "dry_up": 1.697536, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052641, "annualized_volatility": 0.244586, "from_high_reference": -0.092988, "from_low_reference": 0.551258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.6017, "fair_value_reference": 14.769269, "structural_low": 17.896, "invalidation": "A 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0.028487, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.137277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028487, "worst_return": 0.028487, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044788, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00891, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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20.040067, "fair_value": 14.64798, "relative_strength": 5.232631, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.132012, "energy": 40.648775, "activity_lines": [ 22.396, 22.485182, 21.937657, 21.18766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.610001, "volume": 69025, "typical_volume": 31322.9, "trend": 20.1882, "fair_value": 14.672826, "relative_strength": 0.692695, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.027928, "energy": 18.047475, "activity_lines": [ 21.779334, 22.148273, 21.879638, 21.22443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.030001, "volume": 36704, "typical_volume": 31637.05, "trend": 20.3374, "fair_value": 14.70207, "relative_strength": 2.574607, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.895939, "energy": 21.477837, "activity_lines": [ 21.392667, 21.911909, 21.858976, 21.27874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.42, "volume": 110792, "typical_volume": 36717.0, "trend": 20.460667, "fair_value": 14.73148, "relative_strength": -1.336658, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.444428, "energy": 25.815038, "activity_lines": [ 20.958334, 21.582273, 21.769372, 21.284069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.215, "volume": 32279, "typical_volume": 36641.35, "trend": 20.6017, "fair_value": 14.769269, "relative_strength": -0.73622, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.279835, "energy": 22.903772, "activity_lines": [ 20.922667, 21.439273, 21.749205, 21.332736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }