{ "ticker": { "uuid": "094f24b0-d109-4a30-af7d-821110eb6bea", "symbol": "MLCLP", "name": "Colipays Reunion Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.284, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.972, "architecture_energy": 40.626, "architecture_maturity": 17.32, "architecture_confidence": 59.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.12, "rotation_up": 22.08, "upward_expansion": 13.61, "deceleration": 53.72, "rotation_down": 59.28, "downward_expansion": 52.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.056, 2.087818, 2.267381, 2.309527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.04, "trend_reference": 2.309, "distance_from_trend": -0.116501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.589583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.93561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15, "excess_performance": -0.203311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009356, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.92147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.122515, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54, "relative_activity": 0.11876, "balance": 0.122515, "dry_up": 0.593798, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099925, "annualized_volatility": 0.811626, "from_high_reference": -0.378049, "from_low_reference": 1.756757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.309, "fair_value_reference": 1.589583, "structural_low": 1.7, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.294118, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.29462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.527094, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.416256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.285168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.094118, "worst_return": 0.388889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.083744, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.226829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.541176, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.049603, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.527778, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.744186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.326667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.388235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.235955, "active": false }, { 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"close": 2.1, "volume": 217, "typical_volume": 598.95, "trend": 2.267, "fair_value": 1.610609, "relative_strength": 9.618477, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.740494, "energy": 53.808193, "activity_lines": [ 2.049333, 2.157636, 2.32881, 2.33628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.1, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 458.55, "trend": 2.287667, "fair_value": 1.600224, "relative_strength": 6.917596, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.982207, "energy": 43.655464, "activity_lines": [ 2.062, 2.117455, 2.3, 2.325505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.04, "volume": 54, "typical_volume": 454.7, "trend": 2.309, "fair_value": 1.589583, "relative_strength": 0.93561, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.971598, "energy": 40.62597, "activity_lines": [ 2.056, 2.087818, 2.267381, 2.309527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }