{ "ticker": { "uuid": "094fb1a3-33f2-48ae-8b20-ff05ae2ec240", "symbol": "300723", "name": "ApicHope Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.19, "architecture_energy": 13.531, "architecture_maturity": 19.574, "architecture_confidence": 50.697, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.63, "rotation_up": 32.43, "upward_expansion": 42.91, "deceleration": 66.18, "rotation_down": 30.97, "downward_expansion": 38.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.386, 36.510181, 37.398809, 36.923505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 37.990002, "trend_reference": 36.365334, "distance_from_trend": 0.044676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.047411, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.745256, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.128975, "excess_performance": 0.121575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076624, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147658, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128975, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53122210, "relative_activity": 0.803552, "balance": 0.687857, "dry_up": 1.022929, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137891, "annualized_volatility": 0.538542, "from_high_reference": -0.505853, "from_low_reference": 0.296145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.365334, "fair_value_reference": 32.047411, "structural_low": 29.309999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.016758, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.014739, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.332963, "worst_return": -0.110236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133437, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.035315, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.109323, "worst_return": -0.234608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086703, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.225413, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.281512, "worst_return": -0.38563, "sufficient": true 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.931143, "energy": 10.797517, "activity_lines": [ 37.643999, 37.499454, 37.774048, 37.022624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.849998, "volume": 63181301, "typical_volume": 64385575.55, "trend": 36.200334, "fair_value": 31.92651, "relative_strength": -27.356462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.333655, "energy": 5.832561, "activity_lines": [ 36.684665, 36.720363, 37.482476, 36.867226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.299999, "volume": 43665979, "typical_volume": 65032574.4, "trend": 36.217334, "fair_value": 31.97529, "relative_strength": -21.431445, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.664192, "energy": 8.012787, "activity_lines": [ 36.179999, 36.318363, 37.319809, 36.80914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.990002, "volume": 53122210, "typical_volume": 66109213.0, "trend": 36.365334, "fair_value": 32.047411, "relative_strength": -17.745256, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.190162, "energy": 13.530674, "activity_lines": [ 36.386, 36.510181, 37.398809, 36.923505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }