{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0950b30b-7a55-4f70-b19e-745151527f92", "symbol": "6240", "name": "Sung Gang Corp.Limited", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 83.484, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.988, "architecture_energy": 39.336, "architecture_maturity": 12.793, "architecture_confidence": 49.473, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.1, "rotation_up": 58.11, "upward_expansion": 53.6, "deceleration": 27.36, "rotation_down": 22.41, "downward_expansion": 16.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.17, 18.775454, 18.518571, 18.516989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.6, "trend_reference": 18.56, "distance_from_trend": 0.109914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.658654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002839, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.498479, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081365, "excess_performance": -0.360007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109914, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151143, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224985, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163775, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.783017, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107024, "relative_activity": 0.662467, "balance": 5.783017, "dry_up": 0.936869, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070202, "annualized_volatility": 0.204161, "from_high_reference": -0.052874, "from_low_reference": 0.218935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.56, "fair_value_reference": 20.658654, "structural_low": 16.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.032552, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.059216, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.161725, "worst_return": -0.227907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018568, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.098388, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.207547, "worst_return": -0.172093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020134, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02947, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.79661, "worst_return": -0.163972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054968, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.225004, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.210169, "worst_return": -0.161435, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044843, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178977, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"direction": -30.206425, "energy": 13.045262, "activity_lines": [ 18.24, 18.159091, 18.292857, 18.421183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.549999, "volume": 143056, "typical_volume": 216793.0, "trend": 18.593333, "fair_value": 20.746795, "relative_strength": -29.555272, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.128729, "energy": 11.310768, "activity_lines": [ 18.363333, 18.238181, 18.305476, 18.418064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.299999, "volume": 135000, "typical_volume": 220258.8, "trend": 18.571667, "fair_value": 20.720833, "relative_strength": -31.041334, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.757081, "energy": 11.952923, "activity_lines": [ 18.356666, 18.270909, 18.294524, 18.39914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.0, "volume": 81270, "typical_volume": 220957.3, "trend": 18.531667, "fair_value": 20.692949, "relative_strength": -30.215458, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.415344, "energy": 13.687312, "activity_lines": [ 18.259999, 18.24, 18.256904, 18.362258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.85, "volume": 282125, "typical_volume": 234308.3, "trend": 18.52, "fair_value": 20.671474, "relative_strength": -27.589484, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.54615, "energy": 5.813593, "activity_lines": [ 18.45, 18.357272, 18.304524, 18.382796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.6, "volume": 107024, "typical_volume": 161553.75, "trend": 18.56, "fair_value": 20.658654, "relative_strength": -22.498479, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.987922, "energy": 39.336376, "activity_lines": [ 19.17, 18.775454, 18.518571, 18.516989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }