{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0951b885-6a5c-4981-8105-eed6b08201bf", "symbol": "1316", "name": "Sun Yad Construction Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.376, "architecture_energy": 47.964, "architecture_maturity": 61.497, "architecture_confidence": 93.33, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.32, "rotation_up": 23.19, "upward_expansion": 6.57, "deceleration": 49.74, "rotation_down": 59.89, "downward_expansion": 84.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.04, 10.202727, 10.447143, 10.895161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.0, "trend_reference": 11.65, "distance_from_trend": -0.141631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.628368, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316397, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.893507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.267399, "excess_performance": -0.708771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316397, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.468935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.933704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8099137, "relative_activity": 0.791251, "balance": 0.933704, "dry_up": 0.705759, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071, "annualized_volatility": 0.275547, "from_high_reference": -0.41691, "from_low_reference": 0.064963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.65, "fair_value_reference": 14.628368, "structural_low": 9.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.021505, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.018582, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.189573, "worst_return": -0.208791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.0927, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053092, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.16129, "worst_return": -0.203322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041353, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.169318, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.382803, "worst_return": -0.325888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082508, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.549987, "energy": 49.737719, "activity_lines": [ 10.376667, 10.513636, 10.831905, 11.414086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.25, "volume": 5625188, "typical_volume": 10207992.85, "trend": 12.16, "fair_value": 14.646961, "relative_strength": -45.609994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.158592, "energy": 45.446017, "activity_lines": [ 10.3, 10.460909, 10.733095, 11.277634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.95, "volume": 9994990, "typical_volume": 10345083.35, "trend": 11.965, "fair_value": 14.64064, "relative_strength": -45.659972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.279305, "energy": 49.824778, "activity_lines": [ 10.17, 10.36, 10.619762, 11.135054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.05, "volume": 5176889, "typical_volume": 10200352.8, "trend": 11.803333, "fair_value": 14.63496, "relative_strength": -45.579598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.918349, "energy": 49.492588, "activity_lines": [ 10.083333, 10.285455, 10.529524, 11.011505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.0, "volume": 8099137, "typical_volume": 10235860.9, "trend": 11.65, "fair_value": 14.628368, "relative_strength": -46.893507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.375794, "energy": 47.964091, "activity_lines": [ 10.04, 10.202727, 10.447143, 10.895161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }