{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09542b50-be82-4c29-93c7-049a54fb1d8c", "symbol": "FEME", "name": "Fidelity Emerging Markets Quality Income UCITS ETF USD Inc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.722, "architecture_energy": 25.973, "architecture_maturity": 68.263, "architecture_confidence": 89.116, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.11, "rotation_up": 24.1, "upward_expansion": 57.15, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 38.92, "downward_expansion": 20.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.802067, 6.957055, 6.937107, 6.709719 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.984, "trend_reference": 6.402739, "distance_from_trend": 0.090783, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.915229, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.033904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.213153, "excess_performance": 0.042261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090783, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099244, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.42089, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020339, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.213153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.391014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56497, "relative_activity": 2.410647, "balance": 2.391014, "dry_up": 1.039193, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055445, "annualized_volatility": 0.278615, "from_high_reference": -0.084546, "from_low_reference": 0.402046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.402739, "fair_value_reference": 4.915229, "structural_low": 5.430667, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009716, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015343, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.144411, "worst_return": -0.05125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050973, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293298, "worst_return": 0.049528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.097354, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1153, "worst_return": 0.079408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.13938, 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"2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017399, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02181, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018749, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047382, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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3.630797, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.796491, "energy": 26.619066, "activity_lines": [ 6.932467, 7.090164, 6.913731, 6.65391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.549, "volume": 6527, "typical_volume": 20767.8, "trend": 6.353072, "fair_value": 4.895768, "relative_strength": -1.341639, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.210162, "energy": 24.89466, "activity_lines": [ 6.773133, 6.980836, 6.906893, 6.669014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.984, "volume": 56497, "typical_volume": 23436.45, "trend": 6.402739, "fair_value": 4.915229, "relative_strength": 2.033904, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.721863, "energy": 25.972868, "activity_lines": [ 6.802067, 6.957055, 6.937107, 6.709719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }