{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09572512-cc57-44cf-a27d-e8a2458b0a82", "symbol": "MATW", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Materials Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.0, "architecture_energy": 17.177, "architecture_maturity": 24.188, "architecture_confidence": 91.557, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.83, "rotation_up": 34.03, "upward_expansion": 48.61, "deceleration": 79.27, "rotation_down": 30.19, "downward_expansion": 28.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.072933, 15.073927, 15.095533, 15.011533 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.704, "trend_reference": 14.884133, "distance_from_trend": 0.055083, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.394571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267006, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.769063, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091617, "excess_performance": 0.038305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055083, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.76102, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057691, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.56984, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133241, "relative_activity": 2.969579, "balance": 1.56984, "dry_up": 1.367687, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031026, "annualized_volatility": 0.234673, "from_high_reference": -0.013692, "from_low_reference": 0.3436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.884133, "fair_value_reference": 12.394571, "structural_low": 13.095, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009759, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.005904, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.068104, "worst_return": -0.977736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01936, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092424, "worst_return": -0.976397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0194, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.130034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176108, "worst_return": -0.978146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024657, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.004839, "worst_return": -0.974319, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054321, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018832, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045473, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001073, "active": false }, { 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.920516, "energy": 32.238017, "activity_lines": [ 15.211333, 15.182636, 15.043319, 14.872858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.33, "volume": 56549, "typical_volume": 56688.95, "trend": 14.589433, "fair_value": 12.262923, "relative_strength": 7.440141, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.011823, "energy": 35.474654, "activity_lines": [ 15.2368, 15.218109, 15.078505, 14.92608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.954, "volume": 69250, "typical_volume": 56900.4, "trend": 14.660433, "fair_value": 12.289462, "relative_strength": 6.557218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.00507, "energy": 20.678634, "activity_lines": [ 15.148267, 15.180255, 15.076343, 14.9496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.686, "volume": 20903, "typical_volume": 49513.55, "trend": 14.715767, "fair_value": 12.314096, "relative_strength": 4.30885, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.631431, "energy": 11.774599, "activity_lines": [ 14.980267, 15.090927, 15.04929, 14.951249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.912, "volume": 62139, "typical_volume": 44302.9, "trend": 14.7717, "fair_value": 12.338417, "relative_strength": 5.145109, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.595049, "energy": 15.149015, "activity_lines": [ 14.928667, 15.050345, 15.048876, 14.96391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.628, "volume": 29182, "typical_volume": 42177.9, "trend": 14.822133, "fair_value": 12.362577, "relative_strength": 1.233017, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.662001, "energy": 23.231352, "activity_lines": [ 14.8056, 14.960073, 15.021276, 14.954639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.704, "volume": 133241, "typical_volume": 44868.65, "trend": 14.884133, "fair_value": 12.394571, "relative_strength": 5.769063, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.000282, "energy": 17.177224, "activity_lines": [ 15.072933, 15.073927, 15.095533, 15.011533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }