{ "ticker": { "uuid": "095dbb1a-f6cc-47e4-b9f9-08884ba7a612", "symbol": "CNL", "name": "Collective Mining Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.852, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.926, "architecture_energy": 43.652, "architecture_maturity": 23.657, "architecture_confidence": 94.3, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.2, "rotation_up": 22.89, "upward_expansion": 6.3, "deceleration": 51.52, "rotation_down": 49.32, "downward_expansion": 77.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.22, 18.373091, 19.957572, 20.946624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.700001, "trend_reference": 21.907, "distance_from_trend": -0.100744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.158269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.765507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.981898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11381, "excess_performance": -0.234231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.765507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.720001, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 853500, "relative_activity": 1.390575, "balance": 0.648167, "dry_up": 0.91316, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119914, "annualized_volatility": 0.670044, "from_high_reference": -0.34595, "from_low_reference": 0.565978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.907, "fair_value_reference": 11.158269, "structural_low": 15.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.080087, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.039493, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.16, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.257733, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.190195, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.72293, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.533091, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.426293, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.974522, "worst_return": -0.002242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 19.639999, "volume": 39800, "typical_volume": 855665.0, "trend": 22.141333, "fair_value": 10.776218, "relative_strength": -9.024666, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.243343, "energy": 59.314326, "activity_lines": [ 19.214667, 20.185636, 21.922143, 22.266645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.93, "volume": 508100, "typical_volume": 845180.0, "trend": 22.15, "fair_value": 10.853269, "relative_strength": -17.118083, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.686159, "energy": 68.013489, "activity_lines": [ 18.770667, 19.584545, 21.456524, 21.994946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.940001, "volume": 524300, "typical_volume": 804445.0, "trend": 22.072333, "fair_value": 10.922115, "relative_strength": -21.595332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.351161, "energy": 71.55514, "activity_lines": [ 18.088, 18.925636, 20.925048, 21.658817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.93, "volume": 463600, "typical_volume": 789200.0, "trend": 21.979667, "fair_value": 10.99859, "relative_strength": -17.363666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.491218, "energy": 60.35085, "activity_lines": [ 17.923334, 18.592182, 20.542476, 21.39157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 400500, "typical_volume": 775825.0, "trend": 21.917, "fair_value": 11.071667, "relative_strength": -19.992762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.798669, "energy": 62.843654, "activity_lines": [ 17.636, 18.224727, 20.126857, 21.089656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 853500, "typical_volume": 613775.0, "trend": 21.907, "fair_value": 11.158269, "relative_strength": -11.981898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.926177, "energy": 43.652384, "activity_lines": [ 18.22, 18.373091, 19.957572, 20.946624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }