{ "ticker": { "uuid": "095ddc16-57a8-4d42-9758-e0eb45c31315", "symbol": "002620", "name": "Shenzhen Ruihe Construction Decoration Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.657, "architecture_energy": 74.973, "architecture_maturity": 24.077, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 19.06, "upward_expansion": 17.98, "deceleration": 39.53, "rotation_down": 63.21, "downward_expansion": 91.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.747333, 4.972909, 6.18281, 6.693355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.16, "trend_reference": 6.971, "distance_from_trend": -0.259791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.696859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098607, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.492871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145695, "excess_performance": -0.153095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098607, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.077096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.643901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145695, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42224024, "relative_activity": 0.600169, "balance": 0.320842, "dry_up": 0.60959, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184258, "annualized_volatility": 0.842641, "from_high_reference": -0.529626, "from_low_reference": 0.354331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.971, "fair_value_reference": 4.696859, "structural_low": 3.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.02027, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.027725, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.297143, "worst_return": -0.184211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021552, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.033441, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.498039, "worst_return": -0.27821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028056, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023539, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.27451, "worst_return": -0.312668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.254181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119114, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.270732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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4.710128, "relative_strength": -24.000037, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.939843, "energy": 65.170478, "activity_lines": [ 5.162, 5.648364, 6.995762, 7.153161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.21, "volume": 53519429, "typical_volume": 72918413.65, "trend": 6.988333, "fair_value": 4.702821, "relative_strength": -33.475343, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.072624, "energy": 79.336208, "activity_lines": [ 4.818, 5.253455, 6.674048, 6.971763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.48, "volume": 33383500, "typical_volume": 71422314.05, "trend": 6.967, "fair_value": 4.697692, "relative_strength": -28.135788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.199004, "energy": 82.156769, "activity_lines": [ 4.656, 5.019273, 6.389762, 6.809935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.16, "volume": 42224024, "typical_volume": 70353588.05, "trend": 6.971, "fair_value": 4.696859, "relative_strength": -21.492871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.656561, "energy": 74.973076, "activity_lines": [ 4.747333, 4.972909, 6.18281, 6.693355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }