{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0961fb72-bc35-40d9-a4db-bd8528aa48ce", "symbol": "SIO", "name": "Simonds Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.379, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.625, "architecture_energy": 42.77, "architecture_maturity": 16.364, "architecture_confidence": 74.428, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.89, "rotation_up": 52.75, "upward_expansion": 75.77, "deceleration": 57.0, "rotation_down": 19.72, "downward_expansion": 11.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.146667, 0.144545, 0.141381, 0.139151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.145, "trend_reference": 0.1375, "distance_from_trend": 0.054545, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.163926, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115456, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.320842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054545, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018519, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027821, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.323879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272534, "relative_activity": 2.120617, "balance": 1.323879, "dry_up": 1.344107, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079576, "annualized_volatility": 0.542384, "from_high_reference": -0.171429, "from_low_reference": 0.45 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1375, "fair_value_reference": 0.163926, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.037282, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.15625, "worst_return": -0.225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.112948, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.225, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.298301, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.290323, "worst_return": -0.324324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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0.163798, "relative_strength": 6.274892, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.907194, "energy": 44.332536, "activity_lines": [ 0.142333, 0.141455, 0.138167, 0.13714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.14, "volume": 186084, "typical_volume": 243012.15, "trend": 0.136333, "fair_value": 0.163862, "relative_strength": -0.373252, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.052839, "energy": 20.431346, "activity_lines": [ 0.141667, 0.141364, 0.138667, 0.137419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.155, "volume": 87100, "typical_volume": 245572.15, "trend": 0.136833, "fair_value": 0.163958, "relative_strength": 7.720137, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.137902, "energy": 40.763082, "activity_lines": [ 0.146, 0.144, 0.140571, 0.138624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.145, "volume": 272534, "typical_volume": 128516.4, "trend": 0.1375, "fair_value": 0.163926, "relative_strength": -2.320842, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.625469, "energy": 42.769799, "activity_lines": [ 0.146667, 0.144545, 0.141381, 0.139151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }