{ "ticker": { "uuid": "096390a4-720b-4e1f-95c0-44c03c064174", "symbol": "CI2", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI India Swap II UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.529, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.244, "architecture_energy": 26.416, "architecture_maturity": 19.198, "architecture_confidence": 35.487, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.65, "rotation_up": 46.95, "upward_expansion": 46.76, "deceleration": 41.81, "rotation_down": 25.72, "downward_expansion": 9.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 811.251327, 809.204908, 800.199861, 798.01594 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 819.73999, "trend_reference": 802.407672, "distance_from_trend": 0.0216, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 882.365577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070975, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.964947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036767, "excess_performance": -0.207659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027202, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033645, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.317319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144, "relative_activity": 0.259226, "balance": 0.317319, "dry_up": 0.885689, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023409, "annualized_volatility": 0.166568, "from_high_reference": -0.105819, "from_low_reference": 0.129694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 802.407672, "fair_value_reference": 882.365577, "structural_low": 725.630005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.023235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022176, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.000356, "worst_return": -0.061709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046758, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.102333, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.115382, "worst_return": -0.162278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.061248, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.183781, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084356, "worst_return": -0.08691, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 810.449341, 802.064371, 793.825293, 797.273899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 798.51001, "volume": 226, "typical_volume": 658.35, "trend": 806.461338, "fair_value": 881.451539, "relative_strength": -16.127185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.576608, "energy": 20.717193, "activity_lines": [ 806.070675, 802.766372, 794.824199, 796.590373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 812.849976, "volume": 262, "typical_volume": 628.15, "trend": 804.032339, "fair_value": 881.875641, "relative_strength": -14.66922, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.48927, "energy": 21.573999, "activity_lines": [ 807.346664, 805.647639, 797.247576, 797.002543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 819.73999, "volume": 144, "typical_volume": 555.5, "trend": 802.407672, "fair_value": 882.365577, "relative_strength": -15.964947, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.243613, "energy": 26.41574, "activity_lines": [ 811.251327, 809.204908, 800.199861, 798.01594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }