{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0964a785-aa6d-4cb2-9b16-289bcdbf70ea", "symbol": "AGP", "name": "Altea Green Power S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.392, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.887, "architecture_energy": 10.121, "architecture_maturity": 42.731, "architecture_confidence": 54.181, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.38, "rotation_up": 15.61, "upward_expansion": 26.65, "deceleration": 63.42, "rotation_down": 38.55, "downward_expansion": 46.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.053333, 7.074909, 7.037333, 7.024086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.06, "trend_reference": 7.122667, "distance_from_trend": -0.008798, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.876538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.855711, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072273, "excess_performance": -0.243165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006042, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035192, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.522411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91800, "relative_activity": 0.633658, "balance": 2.522411, "dry_up": 0.565232, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040096, "annualized_volatility": 0.266451, "from_high_reference": -0.162515, "from_low_reference": 0.217241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.122667, "fair_value_reference": 6.876538, "structural_low": 6.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.023529, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.002717, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.134393, "worst_return": -0.104905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02521, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.112209, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.236722, "worst_return": -0.118984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015172, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.13564, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.240487, "worst_return": -0.103683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.111869, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111869, "worst_return": 0.111869, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048128, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060811, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036508, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00731, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.355735, "energy": 30.218278, "activity_lines": [ 7.179333, 7.060727, 7.008333, 7.047849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.05, "volume": 87253, "typical_volume": 184134.55, "trend": 7.118667, "fair_value": 6.815641, "relative_strength": -12.729541, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.500566, "energy": 25.184734, "activity_lines": [ 7.16, 7.075091, 7.017857, 7.044452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.96, "volume": 60883, "typical_volume": 164739.05, "trend": 7.128, "fair_value": 6.834872, "relative_strength": -13.102314, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.161586, "energy": 16.028483, "activity_lines": [ 7.105333, 7.068727, 7.020095, 7.034215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.04, "volume": 87612, "typical_volume": 154807.4, "trend": 7.129, "fair_value": 6.856538, "relative_strength": -12.137485, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.442824, "energy": 6.019644, "activity_lines": [ 7.077333, 7.072182, 7.028714, 7.028538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.06, "volume": 91800, "typical_volume": 144873.2, "trend": 7.122667, "fair_value": 6.876538, "relative_strength": -13.855711, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.88689, "energy": 10.12057, "activity_lines": [ 7.053333, 7.074909, 7.037333, 7.024086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }