{ "ticker": { "uuid": "096edc4d-c0e2-4fb8-9ee9-1b32803decfc", "symbol": "4240", "name": "AFG International Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.46, "architecture_energy": 73.024, "architecture_maturity": 80.482, "architecture_confidence": 92.251, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.75, "rotation_up": 14.7, "upward_expansion": 16.35, "deceleration": 38.59, "rotation_down": 73.17, "downward_expansion": 94.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.322667, 12.777273, 13.501048, 14.072452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.26, "trend_reference": 14.97, "distance_from_trend": -0.181029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.44109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.586005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285964, "excess_performance": -0.254134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285964, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2313813, "relative_activity": 0.403197, "balance": 0.455534, "dry_up": 0.399051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09035, "annualized_volatility": 0.320186, "from_high_reference": -0.606547, "from_low_reference": 0.031987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.97, "fair_value_reference": 16.44109, "structural_low": 11.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.048309, "positive_rate": 0.314286, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": -0.033947, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.383459, "worst_return": -0.264599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.098032, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.069366, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.343811, "worst_return": -0.387515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.246917, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.125238, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.485265, "worst_return": -0.400471, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.521531, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016582, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07557, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.382989, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 15.4, "volume": 894972, "typical_volume": 525572.2, "trend": 15.933333, "fair_value": 28.86175, "relative_strength": -10.225911, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper 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15.679, "fair_value": 16.50641, "relative_strength": -34.159465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.288408, "energy": 62.521816, "activity_lines": [ 13.059333, 13.425273, 14.110143, 14.688731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.36, "volume": 2118386, "typical_volume": 5707809.1, "trend": 15.428667, "fair_value": 16.48359, "relative_strength": -33.955685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.691349, "energy": 73.908603, "activity_lines": [ 12.729333, 13.201273, 13.904333, 14.474602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.13, "volume": 2149280, "typical_volume": 5684711.05, "trend": 15.194667, "fair_value": 16.460833, "relative_strength": -32.770665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.169758, "energy": 77.211542, "activity_lines": [ 12.446667, 12.966182, 13.690333, 14.261785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.26, "volume": 2313813, "typical_volume": 5738660.0, "trend": 14.97, "fair_value": 16.44109, "relative_strength": -32.586005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.460181, "energy": 73.023723, "activity_lines": [ 12.322667, 12.777273, 13.501048, 14.072452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }