{ "ticker": { "uuid": "097da1f6-9525-4258-8e8b-24ed044d71ba", "symbol": "EUAD", "name": "SELECT STOXX EUROPE AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.804, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.493, "architecture_energy": 52.675, "architecture_maturity": 9.148, "architecture_confidence": 65.799, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.05, "rotation_up": 66.04, "upward_expansion": 52.14, "deceleration": 18.82, "rotation_down": 15.83, "downward_expansion": 24.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.619333, 43.609273, 42.528286, 42.534 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.97, "trend_reference": 43.117333, "distance_from_trend": 0.089353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.391433, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22345, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.254253, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054795, "excess_performance": -0.07083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001908, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22345, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138138, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118297, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054795, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.186125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 937068, "relative_activity": 0.498108, "balance": 1.186125, "dry_up": 0.439683, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052864, "annualized_volatility": 0.371302, "from_high_reference": -0.030133, "from_low_reference": 0.248538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.117333, "fair_value_reference": 38.391433, "structural_low": 37.62, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.353148, "energy": 15.030037, "activity_lines": [ 42.522, 41.837636, 41.604714, 42.269491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.63, "volume": 644192, "typical_volume": 2237884.1, "trend": 43.078032, "fair_value": 38.174777, "relative_strength": -11.355914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.124562, "energy": 12.113292, "activity_lines": [ 42.330667, 41.905091, 41.578905, 42.174776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.97, "volume": 914991, "typical_volume": 2086725.25, "trend": 43.099667, "fair_value": 38.226899, "relative_strength": -7.715429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.288709, "energy": 13.313234, "activity_lines": [ 42.552667, 42.204909, 41.704524, 42.167806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.95, "volume": 812371, "typical_volume": 1991216.15, "trend": 43.144333, "fair_value": 38.29919, "relative_strength": -4.313467, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.122744, "energy": 33.769216, "activity_lines": [ 43.387333, 42.767818, 42.02481, 42.287183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.97, "volume": 937068, "typical_volume": 1881254.4, "trend": 43.117333, "fair_value": 38.391433, "relative_strength": -3.254253, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.492915, "energy": 52.674982, "activity_lines": [ 44.619333, 43.609273, 42.528286, 42.534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }