{ "ticker": { "uuid": "097dcba7-9f8a-4b29-b628-d88193a29426", "symbol": "GGC", "name": "General de Galer\u00edas Comerciales SOCIMI, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.923, "architecture_energy": 4.679, "architecture_maturity": 24.102, "architecture_confidence": 52.094, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.76, "rotation_up": 26.96, "upward_expansion": 4.5, "deceleration": 60.27, "rotation_down": 34.71, "downward_expansion": 0.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 161.0, 161.0, 161.0, 161.0 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 161.0, "trend_reference": 161.0, "distance_from_trend": 0.0, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.070513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.464386, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.124431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029192, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000956, "annualized_volatility": 0.0, "from_high_reference": -0.006173, "from_low_reference": 0.141844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.0, "fair_value_reference": 145.070513, "structural_low": 161.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.022306, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.133803, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052099, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027703, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.133803, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.078339, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133803, "worst_return": 0.022874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.085645, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.410085, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133803, "worst_return": 0.037487, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-09-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2022-12-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-12-09", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 140.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 140.0, "volume": 0, 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"trend": 161.0, "fair_value": 144.801282, "relative_strength": -8.458186, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.542684, "energy": 15.920532, "activity_lines": [ 161.0, 161.0, 161.0, 161.0 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 161.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.35, "trend": 161.0, "fair_value": 144.935897, "relative_strength": -8.999169, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.984211, "energy": 9.694913, "activity_lines": [ 161.0, 161.0, 161.0, 161.0 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.35, "trend": 161.0, "fair_value": 145.070513, "relative_strength": -10.464386, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.922802, "energy": 4.678818, "activity_lines": [ 161.0, 161.0, 161.0, 161.0 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }