{ "ticker": { "uuid": "097fbd2f-d40e-4cc2-8867-0dbd9e112159", "symbol": "300081", "name": "Hengxin Shambala Culture Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.083, "architecture_energy": 87.848, "architecture_maturity": 56.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.813, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 80.61, "downward_expansion": 97.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.015333, 3.302364, 3.605667, 3.892258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.06, "trend_reference": 4.349333, "distance_from_trend": -0.296444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.396667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.521626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.271781, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.433333, "excess_performance": -0.440733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.296444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133771, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.521626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119221, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.392718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.433333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60792512, "relative_activity": 0.806577, "balance": 0.522837, "dry_up": 0.762742, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106838, "annualized_volatility": 0.536636, "from_high_reference": -0.594702, "from_low_reference": 0.154717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.349333, "fair_value_reference": 6.396667, "structural_low": 2.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.009058, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": 0.003911, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.46696, "worst_return": -0.271482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012757, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026622, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.478747, "worst_return": -0.370423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060251, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.118628, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.833948, "worst_return": -0.224719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-37.374252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.516788, "energy": 70.643775, "activity_lines": [ 3.791333, 3.904, 4.015143, 4.296473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.19, "volume": 39252155, "typical_volume": 81892650.6, "trend": 4.596333, "fair_value": 6.520577, "relative_strength": -38.257185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.060634, "energy": 84.246726, "activity_lines": [ 3.578, 3.759818, 3.914667, 4.19957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 46800480, "typical_volume": 77052399.65, "trend": 4.506667, "fair_value": 6.477821, "relative_strength": -43.283355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.138225, "energy": 95.903835, "activity_lines": [ 3.308, 3.575818, 3.796619, 4.088839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.82, "volume": 83109302, "typical_volume": 76793340.15, "trend": 4.420333, "fair_value": 6.435321, "relative_strength": -42.380376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.889087, "energy": 95.090816, "activity_lines": [ 3.087333, 3.405636, 3.684286, 3.980022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.06, "volume": 60792512, "typical_volume": 75370969.45, "trend": 4.349333, "fair_value": 6.396667, "relative_strength": -39.271781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.082817, "energy": 87.848164, "activity_lines": [ 3.015333, 3.302364, 3.605667, 3.892258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }