{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0980fa03-feed-448f-826f-00edd6f98f42", "symbol": "603530", "name": "Jiangsu Shemar Electric Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.615, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.232, "architecture_energy": 80.265, "architecture_maturity": 15.274, "architecture_confidence": 81.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 9.51, "upward_expansion": 19.37, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 77.0, "downward_expansion": 95.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.594666, 46.240823, 50.689463, 52.87687 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.84, "trend_reference": 53.759892, "distance_from_trend": -0.165921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.804107, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.504491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.842779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013638, "excess_performance": 0.029565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165921, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041292, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.504491, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.910984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.511939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013638, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.329267, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17615693, "relative_activity": 0.961015, "balance": 0.329267, "dry_up": 0.969403, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115805, "annualized_volatility": 0.537421, "from_high_reference": -0.39348, "from_low_reference": 0.583893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.759892, "fair_value_reference": 29.804107, "structural_low": 41.630001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.048257, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.038718, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.367122, "worst_return": -0.167635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062379, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.083828, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.35195, "worst_return": -0.183644, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11527, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.120367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.298835, "worst_return": 0.103673, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"fair_value": 29.091726, "relative_strength": 5.581488, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.966677, "energy": 46.907006, "activity_lines": [ 50.954, 52.797286, 55.783592, 55.602456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.869999, "volume": 16054438, "typical_volume": 24009062.9, "trend": 53.604892, "fair_value": 29.269678, "relative_strength": -1.079353, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.101863, "energy": 68.222994, "activity_lines": [ 47.998, 50.61422, 54.33275, 54.910161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.41, "volume": 18242419, "typical_volume": 20549095.55, "trend": 53.646559, "fair_value": 29.442999, "relative_strength": -3.996354, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.956284, "energy": 73.828446, "activity_lines": [ 45.574, 48.746379, 52.92048, 54.18791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.119999, "volume": 19165256, "typical_volume": 18655916.45, "trend": 53.634559, "fair_value": 29.614711, "relative_strength": -5.662263, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.643327, "energy": 84.691132, "activity_lines": [ 43.806, 47.117099, 51.617685, 53.444261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.84, "volume": 17615693, "typical_volume": 18330304.45, "trend": 53.759892, "fair_value": 29.804107, "relative_strength": -2.842779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.231535, "energy": 80.264526, "activity_lines": [ 43.594666, 46.240823, 50.689463, 52.87687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }