{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0982d88a-872f-4d97-b11d-d9cf3e0410b0", "symbol": "KOTHARIPRO", "name": "Kothari Products Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.02, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.989, "architecture_energy": 27.503, "architecture_maturity": 18.883, "architecture_confidence": 58.226, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.52, "rotation_up": 17.66, "upward_expansion": 19.17, "deceleration": 54.02, "rotation_down": 56.21, "downward_expansion": 48.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.365998, 68.983817, 70.26038, 69.653634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 69.629997, "trend_reference": 68.869666, "distance_from_trend": 0.01104, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 74.752628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.100493, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030487, "excess_performance": 0.074196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01104, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071662, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.845651, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41013, "relative_activity": 0.416397, "balance": 0.845651, "dry_up": 0.397677, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0616, "annualized_volatility": 0.37865, "from_high_reference": -0.361193, "from_low_reference": 0.200517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.869666, "fair_value_reference": 74.752628, "structural_low": 58.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.00437, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.017748, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.647546, "worst_return": -0.181719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.067397, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.061937, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.552119, "worst_return": -0.185567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029458, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.074419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.800118, "worst_return": -0.18911, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1912, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 22601, "typical_volume": 100329.35, "trend": 69.215, "fair_value": 74.593814, "relative_strength": -4.565582, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.143508, "energy": 19.078191, "activity_lines": [ 68.863334, 69.796, 70.554714, 69.766516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.769997, "volume": 48701, "typical_volume": 99011.25, "trend": 68.934666, "fair_value": 74.663013, "relative_strength": -8.461661, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.789627, "energy": 32.552357, "activity_lines": [ 67.993999, 69.076545, 70.278809, 69.608774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.629997, "volume": 41013, "typical_volume": 98495.05, "trend": 68.869666, "fair_value": 74.752628, "relative_strength": -5.100493, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.988747, "energy": 27.503254, "activity_lines": [ 68.365998, 68.983817, 70.26038, 69.653634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }