{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0985d078-da6e-4264-948b-cea9555031ee", "symbol": "HBA", "name": "Hamilton Australian Bank Equal-Weight Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.992, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.395, "architecture_energy": 69.74, "architecture_maturity": 7.881, "architecture_confidence": 74.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.11, "rotation_up": 78.02, "upward_expansion": 58.61, "deceleration": 15.07, "rotation_down": 14.09, "downward_expansion": 28.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.725999, 31.158823, 30.731088, 30.807522 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.349998, "trend_reference": 30.85306, "distance_from_trend": 0.048518, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.008398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243829, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.524095, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063246, "excess_performance": -0.057176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048518, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013097, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243829, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01558, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063246, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.430108, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5400, "relative_activity": 0.470178, "balance": 2.430108, "dry_up": 0.735742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022408, "annualized_volatility": 0.219628, "from_high_reference": -0.03158, "from_low_reference": 0.148227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.85306, "fair_value_reference": 26.008398, "structural_low": 28.843044, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010462, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009003, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.028341, "worst_return": -0.042318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054489, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100127, "worst_return": -0.066286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049235, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.111422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103338, "worst_return": -0.055267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -8.005155, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.520842, "energy": 18.580079, "activity_lines": [ 30.379047, 30.06332, 30.336919, 30.550387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.299999, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 12070.0, "trend": 30.64444, "fair_value": 25.757031, "relative_strength": -6.41051, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.14576, "energy": 24.577994, "activity_lines": [ 30.757252, 30.303803, 30.396691, 30.596192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.440001, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 11495.0, "trend": 30.696663, "fair_value": 25.837369, "relative_strength": -6.049764, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.839839, "energy": 38.665762, "activity_lines": [ 31.061878, 30.558362, 30.477441, 30.647519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.58, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 11420.0, "trend": 30.753285, "fair_value": 25.920499, "relative_strength": -4.981232, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.985418, "energy": 54.021989, "activity_lines": [ 31.308667, 30.801596, 30.568579, 30.704508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.349998, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 11485.0, "trend": 30.85306, "fair_value": 26.008398, "relative_strength": -5.524095, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.395014, "energy": 69.739509, "activity_lines": [ 31.725999, 31.158823, 30.731088, 30.807522 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }