{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0989caed-8645-4fde-ba1b-38f7d1761849", "symbol": "1742", "name": "Taiwan Wax Company,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 53.163, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.176, "architecture_energy": 68.948, "architecture_maturity": 10.741, "architecture_confidence": 62.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.45, "rotation_up": 75.0, "upward_expansion": 90.64, "deceleration": 42.1, "rotation_down": 11.2, "downward_expansion": 17.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.44, 16.744545, 16.204286, 16.163441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.5, "trend_reference": 16.14, "distance_from_trend": 0.084263, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.529167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.62728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100629, "excess_performance": -0.340743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084263, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100629, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.151893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298316, "relative_activity": 1.380179, "balance": 1.151893, "dry_up": 2.011222, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071429, "annualized_volatility": 0.232904, "from_high_reference": -0.066667, "from_low_reference": 0.340996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.14, "fair_value_reference": 16.529167, "structural_low": 14.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029851, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.043696, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.053459, "worst_return": -0.146119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045714, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094916, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.018265, "worst_return": -0.090141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.142804, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.132132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061972, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.088415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012195, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046784, "active": false }, { "regime": 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4.856449, "activity_lines": [ 15.6, 15.532727, 15.618572, 15.778495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.5, "volume": 226301, "typical_volume": 182805.75, "trend": 15.861667, "fair_value": 16.520833, "relative_strength": -21.840608, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.041901, "energy": 14.202726, "activity_lines": [ 15.93, 15.725455, 15.679048, 15.826237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.9, "volume": 469221, "typical_volume": 177946.4, "trend": 16.008333, "fair_value": 16.528205, "relative_strength": -13.248481, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.762324, "energy": 46.336605, "activity_lines": [ 16.666667, 16.146364, 15.875714, 15.957742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 745008, "typical_volume": 209948.95, "trend": 16.103333, "fair_value": 16.532692, "relative_strength": -15.094608, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.98792, "energy": 53.872931, "activity_lines": [ 17.18, 16.496364, 16.057381, 16.073333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.5, "volume": 298316, "typical_volume": 216143.0, "trend": 16.14, "fair_value": 16.529167, "relative_strength": -18.62728, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.175542, "energy": 68.947686, "activity_lines": [ 17.44, 16.744545, 16.204286, 16.163441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }