{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0992398e-40b7-4989-8a5c-e7a04454c081", "symbol": "NOX", "name": "Noxopharm Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.363, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.48, "architecture_energy": 21.817, "architecture_maturity": 38.522, "architecture_confidence": 64.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.16, "rotation_up": 34.46, "upward_expansion": 64.07, "deceleration": 83.36, "rotation_down": 24.66, "downward_expansion": 14.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.083333, 0.084436, 0.080576, 0.076985 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.073833, "distance_from_trend": 0.083521, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.08225, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.38063, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.355932, "excess_performance": 0.292227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088076, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047576, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.355932, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166980, "relative_activity": 0.39065, "balance": 0.320187, "dry_up": 0.68069, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142308, "annualized_volatility": 0.77448, "from_high_reference": -0.407407, "from_low_reference": 0.568627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.073833, "fair_value_reference": 0.08225, "structural_low": 0.051, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.05102, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.077341, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": -0.32381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.249068, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.22325, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.045455, "worst_return": -0.518182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.426087, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.451218, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.263636, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.104597, "energy": 60.444596, "activity_lines": [ 0.088, 0.085309, 0.07939, 0.076133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.082, "volume": 479376, "typical_volume": 428196.95, "trend": 0.0742, "fair_value": 0.081987, "relative_strength": -4.887266, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.101333, "energy": 35.409736, "activity_lines": [ 0.085733, 0.085218, 0.080129, 0.076611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 166980, "typical_volume": 427441.4, "trend": 0.073833, "fair_value": 0.08225, "relative_strength": -9.38063, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.480214, "energy": 21.817133, "activity_lines": [ 0.083333, 0.084436, 0.080576, 0.076985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }