{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0993a581-b55f-4bc3-9b20-5f26571cfb91", "symbol": "GLUG", "name": "L&G Clean Water UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.159, "architecture_energy": 51.762, "architecture_maturity": 11.183, "architecture_confidence": 58.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.55, "rotation_up": 64.03, "upward_expansion": 76.82, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 14.53, "downward_expansion": 5.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.819066, 18.716145, 18.424047, 18.340985 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.205999, "trend_reference": 18.329533, "distance_from_trend": 0.047817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.679808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151452, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.722506, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020618, "excess_performance": -0.150273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020341, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151452, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046483, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133414, "relative_activity": 1.927506, "balance": 0.918159, "dry_up": 1.64099, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023326, "annualized_volatility": 0.147175, "from_high_reference": -0.01102, "from_low_reference": 0.147586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.329533, "fair_value_reference": 16.679808, "structural_low": 16.872, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.006553, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.013061, "regime_survival": 0.65625, "best_return": 0.080958, "worst_return": -0.109579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.007798, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.050928, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083454, "worst_return": -0.10593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042058, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.020161, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.116641, "worst_return": -0.127785, "sufficient": 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"2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011294, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002226, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028379, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.876, "volume": 16782, "typical_volume": 43907.0, "trend": 13.875067, "fair_value": 13.018128, "relative_strength": -6.558813, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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18.571964, 18.321505, 18.281931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.205999, "volume": 133414, "typical_volume": 69215.85, "trend": 18.329533, "fair_value": 16.679808, "relative_strength": -8.722506, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.159331, "energy": 51.762212, "activity_lines": [ 18.819066, 18.716145, 18.424047, 18.340985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }