{ "ticker": { "uuid": "099692d1-ae68-4814-ac08-41586d244c45", "symbol": "NCTY", "name": "The9 Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.066, "architecture_energy": 42.772, "architecture_maturity": 85.093, "architecture_confidence": 81.807, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.91, "rotation_up": 14.81, "upward_expansion": 5.19, "deceleration": 47.8, "rotation_down": 58.04, "downward_expansion": 76.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.209333, 4.381273, 4.731524, 4.956194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.71, "trend_reference": 5.314, "distance_from_trend": -0.113662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.163764, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.42306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.50015, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.193493, "excess_performance": -0.380947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.42306, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 9.1e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.703338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1241351, "relative_activity": 3.568805, "balance": 1.703338, "dry_up": 3.045846, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196075, "annualized_volatility": 0.6995, "from_high_reference": -0.593966, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.314, "fair_value_reference": 8.163764, "structural_low": 3.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.11572, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.096489, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 1.502844, "worst_return": -0.457143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.256816, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.203248, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.813472, "worst_return": -0.520548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.383465, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.46027, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.254112, "worst_return": -0.679795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Developing", "return": -0.346573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013147, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093228, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.340061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.328103, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.754, "volume": 1441811, "typical_volume": 1705747.5, "trend": 9.03684, "fair_value": 74.917803, "relative_strength": -26.78162, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"direction": -74.564617, "energy": 56.11445, "activity_lines": [ 4.48, 4.698545, 5.010571, 5.214172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.21, "volume": 638050, "typical_volume": 197099.65, "trend": 5.436667, "fair_value": 8.210367, "relative_strength": -57.078896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.735152, "energy": 77.781193, "activity_lines": [ 3.992667, 4.391273, 4.819952, 5.06228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.46, "volume": 1965554, "typical_volume": 289217.55, "trend": 5.377667, "fair_value": 8.186456, "relative_strength": -39.725816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.806418, "energy": 65.24333, "activity_lines": [ 4.038, 4.355818, 4.760524, 4.999269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.71, "volume": 1241351, "typical_volume": 347833.8, "trend": 5.314, "fair_value": 8.163764, "relative_strength": -38.50015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.065783, "energy": 42.772128, "activity_lines": [ 4.209333, 4.381273, 4.731524, 4.956194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }