{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0999c343-c3c0-45f3-bf96-76b0ea9e1fb4", "symbol": "5WJ", "name": "MoneyMax Financial Services Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.498, "architecture_energy": 7.955, "architecture_maturity": 28.168, "architecture_confidence": 42.188, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.72, "rotation_up": 31.2, "upward_expansion": 31.87, "deceleration": 53.89, "rotation_down": 32.14, "downward_expansion": 24.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.812667, 0.8, 0.834588, 0.830234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.855, "trend_reference": 0.80695, "distance_from_trend": 0.059545, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.314352, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.71988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.422973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.188553, "excess_performance": 0.033718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059545, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188365, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.71988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.320896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.13423, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.781762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.347975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2375600, "relative_activity": 0.742712, "balance": 0.347975, "dry_up": 0.85767, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08682, "annualized_volatility": 0.498638, "from_high_reference": -0.281513, "from_low_reference": 1.887889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.80695, "fair_value_reference": 0.314352, "structural_low": 0.675319, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09043, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146343, "worst_return": -0.015387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048781, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19681, "worst_return": 0.025642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170215, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.1266, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268296, "worst_return": 0.025642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.227301, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.222972, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.572689, "worst_return": 0.066026, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.224493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047618, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.745065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.569894, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03012, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.102464, "volume": 164000, "typical_volume": 231010.0, "trend": 0.096106, "fair_value": 0.082167, "relative_strength": 12.812856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.496989, "energy": 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14.01654, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.183565, "energy": 23.233105, "activity_lines": [ 0.795667, 0.849453, 0.854073, 0.822397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.755, "volume": 1451800, "typical_volume": 4000185.0, "trend": 0.759156, "fair_value": 0.296368, "relative_strength": 8.869702, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.923492, "energy": 27.59749, "activity_lines": [ 0.773667, 0.824909, 0.845683, 0.822826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.735, "volume": 1907900, "typical_volume": 3370725.0, "trend": 0.769628, "fair_value": 0.300422, "relative_strength": 4.221838, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.574624, "energy": 46.051554, "activity_lines": [ 0.753667, 0.799818, 0.836058, 0.821268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.83, "volume": 4169000, "typical_volume": 3257910.0, "trend": 0.78245, "fair_value": 0.305086, "relative_strength": 14.757175, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.718116, "energy": 34.911941, "activity_lines": [ 0.774333, 0.797182, 0.836035, 0.825163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8, "volume": 2520700, "typical_volume": 3207930.0, "trend": 0.793947, "fair_value": 0.309528, "relative_strength": 8.685309, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.490891, "energy": 19.565848, "activity_lines": [ 0.785667, 0.792364, 0.832745, 0.826295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.855, "volume": 2375600, "typical_volume": 3198550.0, "trend": 0.80695, "fair_value": 0.314352, "relative_strength": 13.422973, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.498391, "energy": 7.95465, "activity_lines": [ 0.812667, 0.8, 0.834588, 0.830234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }