{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "09a025ef-9bb4-4871-982e-2ad02012b91e",
    "symbol": "PABEZ",
    "name": "Amundi S&P Eurozone Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 85.659,
    "architecture_energy": 66.21,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.448,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.401,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.25,
        "rotation_up": 57.24,
        "upward_expansion": 81.91,
        "deceleration": 64.91,
        "rotation_down": 25.77,
        "downward_expansion": 10.91
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.660333,
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        40.730946
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 43.884998,
    "trend_reference": 39.977833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.097733,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 33.546442,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308186,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.058833,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.115106,
    "excess_performance": -0.055786,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097733,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036537,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.308186,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094494,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030588,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048512,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115106,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.344136,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3822,
      "relative_activity": 0.602578,
      "balance": 3.344136,
      "dry_up": 1.394427,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021989,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.174573,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00284,
      "from_low_reference": 0.247796
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 39.977833,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.546442,
      "structural_low": 35.169998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 35,
        "median_return": 0.009455,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001953,
        "regime_survival": 0.771429,
        "best_return": 0.108917,
        "worst_return": -0.042603,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.015235,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014921,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.111244,
        "worst_return": -0.022868,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.041811,
        "regime_survival": 0.857143,
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        "worst_return": 0.018129,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.045571,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": 0.138462,
        "sufficient": false
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-10",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 5387.65,
        "trend": 38.2585,
        "fair_value": 32.192372,
        "relative_strength": -7.076929,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.915412,
        "energy": 33.480692,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.544143,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 5526.5,
        "trend": 38.331,
        "fair_value": 32.277532,
        "relative_strength": -7.910019,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.951123,
        "energy": 32.979668,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 38.825001,
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        "typical_volume": 5694.55,
        "trend": 38.377667,
        "fair_value": 32.357724,
        "relative_strength": -8.210107,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": 47.873974,
        "energy": 28.825717,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 6135.15,
        "trend": 38.459834,
        "fair_value": 32.449936,
        "relative_strength": -5.427056,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.379739,
        "energy": 37.699545,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 40.674999,
        "volume": 25260,
        "typical_volume": 6414.05,
        "trend": 38.568667,
        "fair_value": 32.546282,
        "relative_strength": -5.2333,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 50.373353,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.834323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 40.794998,
        "volume": 2764,
        "typical_volume": 6383.6,
        "trend": 38.702667,
        "fair_value": 32.639936,
        "relative_strength": -4.52669,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.394792,
        "energy": 64.868149,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.281333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 41.755001,
        "volume": 2823,
        "typical_volume": 6111.15,
        "trend": 38.843,
        "fair_value": 32.735064,
        "relative_strength": -5.1397,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.533051,
        "energy": 79.602748,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 42.544998,
        "volume": 361,
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        "trend": 39.041833,
        "fair_value": 32.840737,
        "relative_strength": -5.634005,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.379123,
        "energy": 86.948867,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 41.895,
        "volume": 1072,
        "typical_volume": 5842.1,
        "trend": 39.1825,
        "fair_value": 32.941539,
        "relative_strength": -4.037038,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.885914,
        "energy": 84.037565,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.812333,
          41.019545,
          39.950333,
          39.597796
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.834999,
        "volume": 1896,
        "typical_volume": 5882.15,
        "trend": 39.341333,
        "fair_value": 33.049712,
        "relative_strength": -4.579865,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.233224,
        "energy": 91.214912,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.246333,
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          40.279881,
          39.833441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 42.055,
        "volume": 2701,
        "typical_volume": 5694.85,
        "trend": 39.479833,
        "fair_value": 33.146955,
        "relative_strength": -5.752579,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.090806,
        "energy": 84.800654,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.276333,
          41.705272,
          40.518786,
          40.008516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 41.724998,
        "volume": 12249,
        "typical_volume": 6223.05,
        "trend": 39.594333,
        "fair_value": 33.242244,
        "relative_strength": -4.984175,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.486974,
        "energy": 71.705316,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.112332,
          41.822636,
          40.717381,
          40.153365
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.884998,
        "volume": 10336,
        "typical_volume": 6436.05,
        "trend": 39.717833,
        "fair_value": 33.335288,
        "relative_strength": -4.311276,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.988671,
        "energy": 55.833302,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.003665,
          41.922726,
          40.925214,
          40.30115
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.330002,
        "volume": 8971,
        "typical_volume": 6582.35,
        "trend": 39.835333,
        "fair_value": 33.437212,
        "relative_strength": -3.838059,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.038516,
        "energy": 52.287615,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.087333,
          42.04809,
          41.157857,
          40.469677
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.884998,
        "volume": 3822,
        "typical_volume": 6342.75,
        "trend": 39.977833,
        "fair_value": 33.546442,
        "relative_strength": -3.058833,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.658718,
        "energy": 66.209847,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.660333,
          42.418181,
          41.515952,
          40.730946
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}