{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09a3e924-47a2-4991-ae62-33a22b9a89fd", "symbol": "XRSG", "name": "Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.213, "architecture_energy": 44.78, "architecture_maturity": 64.161, "architecture_confidence": 87.657, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.87, "rotation_up": 38.74, "upward_expansion": 67.38, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 27.8, "downward_expansion": 19.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 32752.366667, 32879.618182, 32335.771429, 31507.872043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33277.5, "trend_reference": 30543.383333, "distance_from_trend": 0.089516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25454.350711, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.192498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156332, "excess_performance": 0.105097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051925, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156332, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.220638, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5837, "relative_activity": 2.091552, "balance": 2.220638, "dry_up": 1.298844, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024393, "annualized_volatility": 0.133386, "from_high_reference": -0.101888, "from_low_reference": 0.370087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30543.383333, "fair_value_reference": 25454.350711, "structural_low": 26741.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.020147, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.040951, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060668, "worst_return": -0.097284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043713, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052407, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.101341, "worst_return": -0.216162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036982, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192697, "worst_return": -0.120547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012953, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047224, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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25183.264173, "relative_strength": 8.864364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.74177, "energy": 83.888656, "activity_lines": [ 33213.566667, 32779.918182, 31645.947619, 30852.023656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32592.5, "volume": 4918, "typical_volume": 3305.4, "trend": 30071.05, "fair_value": 25250.424429, "relative_strength": 6.698836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.629604, "energy": 69.288297, "activity_lines": [ 33014.566667, 32826.654545, 31836.559524, 31024.723656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32822.5, "volume": 2372, "typical_volume": 3080.15, "trend": 30239.15, "fair_value": 25318.222506, "relative_strength": 5.838104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.045821, "energy": 59.111058, "activity_lines": [ 32897.0, 32885.654545, 32031.678571, 31202.236559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32097.5, "volume": 1372, "typical_volume": 2815.5, "trend": 30398.5, "fair_value": 25381.100711, "relative_strength": 2.030147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.480407, "energy": 41.248855, "activity_lines": [ 32572.933333, 32780.472727, 32138.192857, 31322.130108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33277.5, "volume": 5837, "typical_volume": 2790.75, "trend": 30543.383333, "fair_value": 25454.350711, "relative_strength": 5.192498, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.213134, "energy": 44.780401, "activity_lines": [ 32752.366667, 32879.618182, 32335.771429, 31507.872043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }