{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09a765a6-ba21-4f46-b556-bc1faac157b2", "symbol": "CRTX", "name": "CRISM Therapeutics Corporation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.04, "architecture_energy": 57.495, "architecture_maturity": 21.769, "architecture_confidence": 94.297, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.65, "rotation_up": 16.69, "upward_expansion": 12.06, "deceleration": 40.1, "rotation_down": 62.44, "downward_expansion": 87.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0955, 0.098182, 0.104536, 0.109742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.095, "trend_reference": 0.11475, "distance_from_trend": -0.172113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.123338, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.944738, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254902, "excess_performance": -0.306137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094321, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.772678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 636876, "relative_activity": 0.803852, "balance": 0.772678, "dry_up": 1.447027, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142105, "annualized_volatility": 0.643562, "from_high_reference": -0.486486, "from_low_reference": 0.1875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.11475, "fair_value_reference": 0.123338, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.051957, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.060055, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.909091, "worst_return": -0.427083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003472, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00261, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.352941, "worst_return": -0.344828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.101675, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.004618, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 6.263263, "worst_return": -0.340278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.4375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", 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"volume": 955166, "typical_volume": 825573.45, "trend": 0.115333, "fair_value": 0.125454, "relative_strength": -20.591741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.444668, "energy": 50.691407, "activity_lines": [ 0.098167, 0.101091, 0.107762, 0.112355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.095, "volume": 2350779, "typical_volume": 917590.4, "trend": 0.115167, "fair_value": 0.124268, "relative_strength": -21.13177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.456574, "energy": 55.211692, "activity_lines": [ 0.096667, 0.099455, 0.106095, 0.111043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.095, "volume": 636876, "typical_volume": 792280.6, "trend": 0.11475, "fair_value": 0.123338, "relative_strength": -20.944738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.040207, "energy": 57.494813, "activity_lines": [ 0.0955, 0.098182, 0.104536, 0.109742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }