{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09b6de1b-123c-45a2-b0ed-3f6b9e5aa78b", "symbol": "5129", "name": "Melati Ehsan Holdings Berhad", "exchange": "KLS", "country": "MY", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^KLSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.892, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.252, "architecture_energy": 9.985, "architecture_maturity": 34.732, "architecture_confidence": 55.47, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.58, "rotation_up": 32.45, "upward_expansion": 19.73, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 20.18, "downward_expansion": 56.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5, 0.496, 0.499476, 0.501397 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.52, "trend_reference": 0.50283, "distance_from_trend": 0.034147, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.51891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0021, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.364269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029903, "excess_performance": 0.039231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034147, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -6.5e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001187, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003643, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022592, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029903, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.07943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7800, "relative_activity": 0.579926, "balance": 0.07943, "dry_up": 0.144981, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023669, "annualized_volatility": 0.119104, "from_high_reference": -0.052858, "from_low_reference": 0.178668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.50283, "fair_value_reference": 0.51891, "structural_low": 0.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036878, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.037725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025714, "worst_return": -0.086207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.014563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008475, "worst_return": -0.063064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032116, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.060851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026316, "worst_return": -0.051862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.000145, 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"2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-08-21", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.490917, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 33200.0, "trend": 0.525061, "fair_value": 0.50707, "relative_strength": -7.579737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.780549, "energy": 34.434926, "activity_lines": [ 0.499099, 0.499672, 0.507147, 0.515473 ] }, { "date": 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0.519044, "relative_strength": -4.625659, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.965359, "energy": 68.324679, "activity_lines": [ 0.490667, 0.495091, 0.501571, 0.502361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13560.0, "trend": 0.501196, "fair_value": 0.518917, "relative_strength": -5.597466, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.29883, "energy": 68.538382, "activity_lines": [ 0.49, 0.493273, 0.50019, 0.501617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13560.0, "trend": 0.500863, "fair_value": 0.518851, "relative_strength": -5.859211, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.730789, "energy": 56.511478, "activity_lines": [ 0.49, 0.492, 0.498905, 0.500894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13560.0, "trend": 0.501346, "fair_value": 0.518906, "relative_strength": -5.104952, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.032132, "energy": 52.015522, "activity_lines": [ 0.49, 0.491091, 0.497714, 0.500194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.52, "volume": 7800, "typical_volume": 13450.0, "trend": 0.50283, "fair_value": 0.51891, "relative_strength": 0.364269, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.252089, "energy": 9.984695, "activity_lines": [ 0.5, 0.496, 0.499476, 0.501397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }