{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09b9d1ee-e66f-4ac6-ad78-fef5b1ead4c0", "symbol": "NIVI-B", "name": "Nivika Fastigheter AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.998, "architecture_energy": 32.554, "architecture_maturity": 50.798, "architecture_confidence": 80.413, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.6, "rotation_up": 25.47, "upward_expansion": 8.41, "deceleration": 54.42, "rotation_down": 43.79, "downward_expansion": 72.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.253333, 37.274545, 37.779936, 38.561734 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.0, "trend_reference": 39.855273, "distance_from_trend": -0.071641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.945443, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.136379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.163492, "excess_performance": -0.224986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024916, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163492, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.78883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 441274, "relative_activity": 1.102987, "balance": 7.78883, "dry_up": 0.555846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049335, "annualized_volatility": 0.175247, "from_high_reference": -0.226983, "from_low_reference": 0.036415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.855273, "fair_value_reference": 37.945443, "structural_low": 35.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01525, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.014519, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.121569, "worst_return": -0.147157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046409, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.062739, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.062069, "worst_return": -0.117318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002804, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.040643, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.482759, "worst_return": -0.189944, "sufficient": 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-16.755902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.901139, "energy": 44.843206, "activity_lines": [ 37.176666, 37.566447, 38.317918, 39.347556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.099998, "volume": 177981, "typical_volume": 377821.9, "trend": 40.495709, "fair_value": 37.870672, "relative_strength": -14.227406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.331611, "energy": 35.944716, "activity_lines": [ 37.446665, 37.602172, 38.213048, 39.183541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.950001, "volume": 129846, "typical_volume": 381017.6, "trend": 40.307538, "fair_value": 37.89139, "relative_strength": -17.598016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.636776, "energy": 33.23247, "activity_lines": [ 37.326666, 37.446363, 38.030267, 38.954785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.299999, "volume": 140413, "typical_volume": 382056.15, "trend": 40.084753, "fair_value": 37.91875, "relative_strength": -17.433932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.214705, "energy": 26.158036, "activity_lines": [ 37.379999, 37.377272, 37.912458, 38.76075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.0, "volume": 441274, "typical_volume": 400071.8, "trend": 39.855273, "fair_value": 37.945443, "relative_strength": -19.136379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.997671, "energy": 32.553894, "activity_lines": [ 37.253333, 37.274545, 37.779936, 38.561734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }