{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09ba5b5d-6e1b-46af-970a-d6f26308249c", "symbol": "TVVISION", "name": "TV Vision Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.897, "architecture_energy": 79.32, "architecture_maturity": 61.517, "architecture_confidence": 80.295, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.79, "rotation_up": 10.12, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 37.69, "rotation_down": 81.92, "downward_expansion": 94.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.528, 4.778545, 5.004524, 5.161484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.13, "trend_reference": 5.462667, "distance_from_trend": -0.243959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.591731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.917867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341308, "excess_performance": -0.297599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.243959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.177492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199262, "relative_activity": 2.780855, "balance": 0.177492, "dry_up": 1.384318, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111566, "annualized_volatility": 0.211939, "from_high_reference": -0.666935, "from_low_reference": 0.002427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.462667, "fair_value_reference": 7.591731, "structural_low": 4.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.000145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013869, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.572899, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081012, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.072215, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.886957, "worst_return": -0.288018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.148267, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.05609, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.343478, "worst_return": -0.110744, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.228261, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.144104, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.404762, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.161017, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.580282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.687853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.741304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.284298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.300712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.214829, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.6, "volume": 6380, "typical_volume": 12908.4, "trend": 2.365, "fair_value": 2.528846, "relative_strength": -5.86955, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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5.232545, 5.296667, 5.535527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.07, "volume": 46847, "typical_volume": 70685.25, "trend": 6.027333, "fair_value": 7.539038, "relative_strength": -16.681627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.576373, "energy": 40.132893, "activity_lines": [ 5.142, 5.197091, 5.265952, 5.467957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.93, "volume": 84508, "typical_volume": 70074.1, "trend": 5.817, "fair_value": 7.554615, "relative_strength": -18.633277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.83924, "energy": 42.779812, "activity_lines": [ 5.055333, 5.141818, 5.226905, 5.397161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.7, "volume": 46448, "typical_volume": 65453.3, "trend": 5.668, "fair_value": 7.568397, "relative_strength": -20.07507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.524361, "energy": 54.235974, "activity_lines": [ 4.922667, 5.053091, 5.170857, 5.325097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.56, "volume": 66555, "typical_volume": 64717.6, "trend": 5.558, "fair_value": 7.581603, "relative_strength": -23.808742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.546237, "energy": 63.016702, "activity_lines": [ 4.776667, 4.948545, 5.106, 5.253613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.13, "volume": 199262, "typical_volume": 71654.95, "trend": 5.462667, "fair_value": 7.591731, "relative_strength": -30.917867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.896662, "energy": 79.3195, "activity_lines": [ 4.528, 4.778545, 5.004524, 5.161484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }