{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09bf250a-0560-48d2-a741-2dd96a3b9448", "symbol": "301020", "name": "Yantai Ishikawa Sealing Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.062, "architecture_energy": 65.378, "architecture_maturity": 13.375, "architecture_confidence": 79.871, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.04, "rotation_up": 9.24, "upward_expansion": 13.69, "deceleration": 38.07, "rotation_down": 73.44, "downward_expansion": 89.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.802667, 20.041636, 21.826593, 22.119664 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.4, "trend_reference": 22.47174, "distance_from_trend": -0.092193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.0918, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01534, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.727977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.11549, "excess_performance": -0.12289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01534, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11549, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.111912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18547970, "relative_activity": 1.332252, "balance": 1.111912, "dry_up": 1.034458, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164938, "annualized_volatility": 0.661731, "from_high_reference": -0.413276, "from_low_reference": 0.319534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.47174, "fair_value_reference": 20.0918, "structural_low": 15.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.095656, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.043404, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.376517, "worst_return": -0.177755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022172, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038675, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.303218, "worst_return": -0.053261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.143105, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.057287, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.202706, "worst_return": -0.074252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.110617, "relative_strength": -24.994024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.712022, "energy": 74.905483, "activity_lines": [ 19.008666, 21.167811, 22.415041, 22.538392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.27, "volume": 11262561, "typical_volume": 13378664.5, "trend": 22.52376, "fair_value": 20.08691, "relative_strength": -18.194422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.545951, "energy": 74.307148, "activity_lines": [ 18.401333, 20.290182, 22.009678, 22.256681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.4, "volume": 18547970, "typical_volume": 13922272.45, "trend": 22.47174, "fair_value": 20.0918, "relative_strength": -12.727977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.061752, "energy": 65.378218, "activity_lines": [ 18.802667, 20.041636, 21.826593, 22.119664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }