{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09bf6abd-fb23-4ff5-90d9-deec0b5dcec2", "symbol": "THEINVEST", "name": "The Investment Trust of India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.702, "architecture_energy": 29.067, "architecture_maturity": 30.437, "architecture_confidence": 89.723, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.32, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 3.75, "deceleration": 46.12, "rotation_down": 42.49, "downward_expansion": 72.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.382, 97.787273, 99.780904, 100.134537 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 98.139999, "trend_reference": 101.223666, "distance_from_trend": -0.030464, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 137.549808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.442872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01456, "excess_performance": 0.029149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030464, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.697033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46526, "relative_activity": 0.62417, "balance": 1.697033, "dry_up": 0.370875, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082182, "annualized_volatility": 0.468085, "from_high_reference": -0.40449, "from_low_reference": 0.102697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.223666, "fair_value_reference": 137.549808, "structural_low": 89.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.021942, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.027454, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.341265, "worst_return": -0.191198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.05716, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.08993, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.35418, "worst_return": -0.360372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.03139, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.102487, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.481386, "worst_return": -0.242473, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096586, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059284, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073421, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.186472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.200163, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 76.800003, "volume": 21208, "typical_volume": 77717.55, "trend": 81.171666, "fair_value": 102.369551, "relative_strength": -16.666478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", 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101.242, 101.663591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.349998, "volume": 22876, "typical_volume": 80197.85, "trend": 103.438999, "fair_value": 137.192372, "relative_strength": -17.009072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.075164, "energy": 24.458912, "activity_lines": [ 98.396667, 98.740727, 100.906523, 101.232472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.209999, "volume": 16054, "typical_volume": 78968.85, "trend": 102.591999, "fair_value": 137.304936, "relative_strength": -15.917423, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.037339, "energy": 28.905132, "activity_lines": [ 97.291333, 98.060182, 100.360428, 100.701569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.610001, "volume": 25125, "typical_volume": 74914.0, "trend": 101.946999, "fair_value": 137.428718, "relative_strength": -15.065068, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.204645, "energy": 25.32341, "activity_lines": [ 97.21, 97.860364, 100.051952, 100.38015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.139999, "volume": 46526, "typical_volume": 74540.6, "trend": 101.223666, "fair_value": 137.549808, "relative_strength": -14.442872, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.702392, "energy": 29.06712, "activity_lines": [ 97.382, 97.787273, 99.780904, 100.134537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }