{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09c9e361-5594-42d7-bf53-71701f0e7f65", "symbol": "002189", "name": "Costar Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.048, "architecture_energy": 64.617, "architecture_maturity": 23.272, "architecture_confidence": 87.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.59, "rotation_up": 12.7, "upward_expansion": 16.41, "deceleration": 35.02, "rotation_down": 68.91, "downward_expansion": 87.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.638667, 19.287818, 20.13819, 20.462451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.67, "trend_reference": 21.117666, "distance_from_trend": -0.115906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.685, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.837325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151749, "excess_performance": -0.159149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.511059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15906922, "relative_activity": 0.887002, "balance": 0.511059, "dry_up": 1.094493, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096782, "annualized_volatility": 0.368385, "from_high_reference": -0.387668, "from_low_reference": 0.169799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.117666, "fair_value_reference": 19.685, "structural_low": 15.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.037303, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.024046, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.119522, "worst_return": -0.22291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064348, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.600269, "worst_return": -0.155935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02543, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004115, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.534194, "worst_return": -0.164918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.858909, 20.979428, 21.231376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.9, "volume": 10875579, "typical_volume": 16981012.35, "trend": 21.526333, "fair_value": 19.639038, "relative_strength": -22.534962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.696431, "energy": 53.049552, "activity_lines": [ 19.669333, 20.218364, 20.685143, 20.986107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.1, "volume": 21337997, "typical_volume": 16881926.75, "trend": 21.415333, "fair_value": 19.652628, "relative_strength": -16.764934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.71884, "energy": 50.580486, "activity_lines": [ 19.365333, 19.907818, 20.528143, 20.82957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.32, "volume": 30391163, "typical_volume": 17766657.75, "trend": 21.265, "fair_value": 19.665641, "relative_strength": -18.091815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.350798, "energy": 63.794248, "activity_lines": [ 18.853333, 19.524182, 20.310095, 20.629871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.67, "volume": 15906922, "typical_volume": 17933345.75, "trend": 21.117666, "fair_value": 19.685, "relative_strength": -19.837325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.047769, "energy": 64.616694, "activity_lines": [ 18.638667, 19.287818, 20.13819, 20.462451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }