{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09ca59c5-8553-4010-9488-3b82701f5758", "symbol": "ABM", "name": "Asia Biomass Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.769, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.416, "architecture_energy": 13.682, "architecture_maturity": 21.961, "architecture_confidence": 63.614, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.79, "rotation_up": 21.49, "upward_expansion": 12.1, "deceleration": 43.57, "rotation_down": 28.86, "downward_expansion": 57.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.498667, 0.500364, 0.490381, 0.506151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.5, "trend_reference": 0.533333, "distance_from_trend": -0.0625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.009615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.504762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.815957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122807, "excess_performance": -0.315132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.504762, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075633, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932204, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 336400, "relative_activity": 1.122699, "balance": 0.932204, "dry_up": 0.813239, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107692, "annualized_volatility": 0.394625, "from_high_reference": -0.484536, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.533333, "fair_value_reference": 1.009615, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.053326, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.065729, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.169231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061481, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.098864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062069, "worst_return": -0.276923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.197662, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.279319, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.071942, "worst_return": -0.51938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.446154, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.31347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.124138, "worst_return": -0.550101, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075188, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007812, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007752, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.163934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.35, "volume": 3319000, "typical_volume": 2091770.0, "trend": 1.519333, "fair_value": 1.691799, "relative_strength": -19.587966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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309185.0, "trend": 0.542333, "fair_value": 1.019359, "relative_strength": -33.552719, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.183127, "energy": 12.491943, "activity_lines": [ 0.504667, 0.497455, 0.491619, 0.511978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 297990.0, "trend": 0.538, "fair_value": 1.014551, "relative_strength": -33.405508, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.833089, "energy": 10.680915, "activity_lines": [ 0.5, 0.498545, 0.490333, 0.508602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5, "volume": 336400, "typical_volume": 299635.0, "trend": 0.533333, "fair_value": 1.009615, "relative_strength": -30.815957, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.415779, "energy": 13.681742, "activity_lines": [ 0.498667, 0.500364, 0.490381, 0.506151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }