{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09cdb229-05dc-4f55-8ecb-c90f93a4cf09", "symbol": "KVYO", "name": "Klaviyo, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.046, "architecture_energy": 12.484, "architecture_maturity": 24.076, "architecture_confidence": 69.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.46, "rotation_up": 34.6, "upward_expansion": 31.7, "deceleration": 45.19, "rotation_down": 18.23, "downward_expansion": 40.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.060667, 16.562909, 16.375143, 16.887398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.62, "trend_reference": 17.930333, "distance_from_trend": -0.073079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.393974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.414665, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.946813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131661, "excess_performance": -0.257286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.414665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071147, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52101447, "relative_activity": 1.806681, "balance": 0.978785, "dry_up": 0.972913, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146463, "annualized_volatility": 0.804988, "from_high_reference": -0.541201, "from_low_reference": 0.326417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.930333, "fair_value_reference": 28.393974, "structural_low": 12.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.123562, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.117774, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.091521, "worst_return": -0.25446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.083877, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.146206, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.054903, "worst_return": -0.418466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.359732, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.48676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.134175, "worst_return": -0.58529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.542572, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.787707, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.542572, "worst_return": -0.542572, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.325536, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.28303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25801, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020031, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025239, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075567, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.261594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068386, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 33.39, "volume": 24038776, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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-37.297085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.272647, "energy": 24.882009, "activity_lines": [ 15.837333, 15.422727, 16.329524, 17.370581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.67, "volume": 18784748, "typical_volume": 26980924.25, "trend": 19.251333, "fair_value": 28.625878, "relative_strength": -32.427684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.954411, "energy": 18.016335, "activity_lines": [ 16.649333, 15.870909, 16.380619, 17.237849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.4, "volume": 17339529, "typical_volume": 26501629.2, "trend": 18.711667, "fair_value": 28.543826, "relative_strength": -35.853988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.416358, "energy": 19.155916, "activity_lines": [ 16.807333, 16.043455, 16.309524, 17.053892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.84, "volume": 24002580, "typical_volume": 26870359.4, "trend": 18.329, "fair_value": 28.472467, "relative_strength": -30.027362, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.381612, "energy": 12.135802, "activity_lines": [ 17.235333, 16.441091, 16.397381, 16.997656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.62, "volume": 52101447, "typical_volume": 28838203.6, "trend": 17.930333, "fair_value": 28.393974, "relative_strength": -35.946813, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.045567, "energy": 12.484402, "activity_lines": [ 17.060667, 16.562909, 16.375143, 16.887398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }